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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Predictably, recent customers who purchased Tesla vehicles have become disenchanted because price cuts left them feeling a bit fleeced. Predictable on two levels. It is predictable that customers would feel this way after having paid more than they could have, but it was also predictable that the prices were going to fall. It was Tesla's stated intent, and it was well telegraphed.

World events in the last 24 months conspired to put a strain on a number of components needed for modern vehicle production. This affected the supply; making vehicles a rarer commodity. It is an odd thing to watch, people all of a sudden throwing gold at a thing just because it is becoming rarer; Whether it be Bitcoin or a used SUV. Prices went nuts.

I have not "needed" a vehicle for a very long time. I have been accused of being a collector, and I admittingly have too many. I was not left with nothing to drive, and hence not forced into the crazy vehicle market this last two years. I was tempted to sell some, but could not decide which of my babies I could live without. But I must have been the exception, right? There must have been literal masses who found themselves with nothing to drive, because this multitude of the wheel-less descended on the limited offerings available and drove prices to remarkable highs. Carvana wanted to pay me $15k over what I paid new for my high-mileage Model Y. Craziness.

Flash back to those lamenting paying too much for their cars. My only conclusion is that they were not paying attention. Maybe some of those people did not know where to look for the information they needed to make a wiser purchase. If indeed that is the case, let's examine todays F 150 Lightning prices and see if we can see some of the benchmarks some seem to have missed with Tesla's pricing.

-Tesla
It has been well documented that Tesla was not as badly affected by component shortages as many of the other automakers. This was largely due to their vertical integration models. Best evidence suggests they kept prices higher because the could, not because they needed to. This put the brand in the position to be able to fire the opening volley of the 2023 price wars. This is going to affect the competition and if you do not think that will affect truck prices then;

-Cybertruk
The drones and spies are reporting thick and heavy on the construction of the CT's assembly line in Texas. Predictably delayed, the line is now under full construction and building fast. There is little doubt to anybody that is paying attention that this line will be producing trucks this year. It is not likely that they will be in great numbers (probably about 10,000 or so the first year), but the effect will be there. Pricing and features will become known, and models will begin roving the highways.

Tesla is being pretty transparent in its intent to add price leader to it's list of accomplishments. From the 4680 cell, to the exoskeleton to the massive castings, they have made huge swings at being able to manufacture vehicles and trucks for less, much less, then anybody is currently doing. Expect Tesla to intentionally shock the EV truck industry with their initial pricing. They know they are late, this will claw back some sales.

-Supply chain issues
The supply chain issues that have ham-strung the industry are easing. This will loose higher production, helping to correct the supply/demand imbalance we have been seeing.

-Demand
The frenzie to purchase over-priced goods appears to be slowing. Many of those who had gold to throw at these purchases have now done so. Interest rates are reining in the hastiness in others, and there is a general exhaustion on the demand side.

-Conclusion
Vehicle prices will decline in the next 12 months. In the case of the F 150 Lightning, I believe the pegs are lined up to see a dramatic decline for this vehicle.

If your shoes are worn out, and you absolutely must buy a truck now, then your hand is forced. Otherwise, wait a few months. you will likely save thousands.

P.S.
I told my brother to wait on his Model 3 P purchase a few months ago. Convinced that prices would go up in 2023, he purchased it anyway. "You'll see" he said.

Now he is mad at Elon.
🤦‍♂️
 

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Model 3 AWD, Lightning Lariat on order
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Very well summed up. I know for a fact that if the Cybertruck pricing is in line with a Lariat Lightning I will be trading. It makes me wonder if I don't need to be selling my Lightning now. I could drive a brand-New P 3 for 18 months and likely get my money back out of it when my Cybertruck number comes up. If I keep and drive the Lightning, I'm a bit afraid I'm going to take a bath on it, and I got 2022 pricing with the govt rebate.

Lots of ifs, but everyone that kept saying Ford was losing money on every Lightning they build, and the price hikes were inevitable just continue to drink the same Ford Kool-Aid they have for years. Let's see if Ford adjusts those prices back down now or just laughs all the way to the bank. Market pressure will make them adjust; we'll just have to see how long it takes.
 
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I agree with the overall assessment, however, it also depends on where you are buying and what year you are buying. For example, I was originally looking at a used one and prices were only about $2k less than MSRP, however, I got a 22 Lariat new at MSRP. that will allow me to get my $7500 tax credit and in addition, I live in NJ, so no sales tax on EV, so my savings there are close to $12k. However, if I bought the exact same truck that was a MY23, MSRP would be over $80k, so not allowing me to claim a $7500 credit. So essentially, to same truck would be about $15k more, with less features. So, I think you win if you can get your hands on a NEW 2022, not such a good deal on a 23. For anyone who has orders in for 23, I don't think it's a good deal and would probably cancel.
 

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A mass produced vehicle is not an investment. If you want a Lightning and can afford one, buy it. If your main concern is depreciation, buy a low mileage 2014 F150. You'll be a lot happier.
I don't think that's the point of this post, no one is saying the Lightning is an investment. As an early adopter, it's expected for this to be more expensive, but without us as early adopters, then there's no progress.
 

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Ford has an easy way to meet demand where the market is; build XLTs. They don't need to reduce prices of Lariats and and Platinums because people are buying them. Tesla and Ford are at very different stages of production; Ford has a hot new product and has yet to ramp up production, Tesla has an aging product and full production capability.

I'm not saying Ford won't ever offer incentives on Lightning, just that there are intermediate steps before they get there. Building the commodity truck (XLT) is the obvious one.
 

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There’s two ways the recent price cuts at Tesla could be seen:
1. Pressuring the competition
2. Desperate measure to regain market share
I even considered a Model Y at the new 20% reduction but chose to finalize my XLT purchase as the reality is the lightning is here now and wouldnt miss out on the opportunity. Tesla also usually overestimates its time estimates. I’m still uncertain whether they will start selling the CT on a mass level anytime this year.
 

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There’s two ways the recent price cuts at Tesla could be seen:
1. Pressuring the competition
2. Desperate measure to regain market share
I even considered a Model Y at the new 20% reduction but chose to finalize my XLT purchase as the reality is the lightning is here now and wouldnt miss out on the opportunity. Tesla also usually overestimates its time estimates. I’m still uncertain whether they will start selling the CT on a mass level anytime this year.
#2 hit the mark - they are desperate…as competition ramps up their EVs, they won’t have any other way out. Reducing your profit over vehicles sold is not a smart move overtime…

BUT Tesla now has an image problem - I know people that had reserved one but pulled it off after finding out Elon’s true colours, they want nothing to do with his new ‘image’
 

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It will be interesting to see how the Cybertruck is priced. Do they really have over a million preorders? If so at what price? Extremely likely Ford will have to lower their Lightning prices. I’m a model S owner but just can’t stomach the look of the Cybertruck even though the specs look good. I’m buying the Lightning believing it will depreciate sharply but don’t mind rewarding Ford for building it. YOLO
 

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Very well summed up. I know for a fact that if the Cybertruck pricing is in line with a Lariat Lightning I will be trading. It makes me wonder if I don't need to be selling my Lightning now. I could drive a brand-New P 3 for 18 months and likely get my money back out of it when my Cybertruck number comes up. If I keep and drive the Lightning, I'm a bit afraid I'm going to take a bath on it, and I got 2022 pricing with the govt rebate.

Lots of ifs, but everyone that kept saying Ford was losing money on every Lightning they build, and the price hikes were inevitable just continue to drink the same Ford Kool-Aid they have for years. Let's see if Ford adjusts those prices back down now or just laughs all the way to the bank. Market pressure will make them adjust; we'll just have to see how long it takes.
Like you, I own both a Model 3 and a Lariat Lightening. I don't see any comparison between my new truck and the oft-delayed fanboy, Star Wars Cybertruck. I need a traditional form factor to accommodate toolboxes and gooseneck hitch. I need sloping side rails and Darth Vader aesthetic like a hole in the head. I thought I would like my long range, max tow truck, but I had No Idea how much I would adore it. I've ditched my generator and driven steep miles in deep powder. I'm in 7th heaven. & I look the same at the feed store and at local ranches w/o anyone thinking I' ve lost my mind and gone woke.
 

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Predictably, recent customers who purchased Tesla vehicles have become disenchanted because price cuts left them feeling a bit fleeced. Predictable on two levels. It is predictable that customers would feel this way after having paid more than they could have, but it was also predictable that the prices were going to fall. It was Tesla's stated intent, and it was well telegraphed.

World events in the last 24 months conspired to put a strain on a number of components needed for modern vehicle production. This affected the supply; making vehicles a rarer commodity. It is an odd thing to watch, people all of a sudden throwing gold at a thing just because it is becoming rarer; Whether it be Bitcoin or a used SUV. Prices went nuts.

I have not "needed" a vehicle for a very long time. I have been accused of being a collector, and I admittingly have too many. I was not left with nothing to drive, and hence not forced into the crazy vehicle market this last two years. I was tempted to sell some, but could not decide which of my babies I could live without. But I must have been the exception, right? There must have been literal masses who found themselves with nothing to drive, because this multitude of the wheel-less descended on the limited offerings available and drove prices to remarkable highs. Carvana wanted to pay me $15k over what I paid new for my high-mileage Model Y. Craziness.

Flash back to those lamenting paying too much for their cars. My only conclusion is that they were not paying attention. Maybe some of those people did not know where to look for the information they needed to make a wiser purchase. If indeed that is the case, let's examine todays F 150 Lightning prices and see if we can see some of the benchmarks some seem to have missed with Tesla's pricing.

-Tesla
It has been well documented that Tesla was not as badly affected by component shortages as many of the other automakers. This was largely due to their vertical integration models. Best evidence suggests they kept prices higher because the could, not because they needed to. This put the brand in the position to be able to fire the opening volley of the 2023 price wars. This is going to affect the competition and if you do not think that will affect truck prices then;

-Cybertruk
The drones and spies are reporting thick and heavy on the construction of the CT's assembly line in Texas. Predictably delayed, the line is now under full construction and building fast. There is little doubt to anybody that is paying attention that this line will be producing trucks this year. It is not likely that they will be in great numbers (probably about 10,000 or so the first year), but the effect will be there. Pricing and features will become known, and models will begin roving the highways.

Tesla is being pretty transparent in its intent to add price leader to it's list of accomplishments. From the 4680 cell, to the exoskeleton to the massive castings, they have made huge swings at being able to manufacture vehicles and trucks for less, much less, then anybody is currently doing. Expect Tesla to intentionally shock the EV truck industry with their initial pricing. They know they are late, this will claw back some sales.

-Supply chain issues
The supply chain issues that have ham-strung the industry are easing. This will loose higher production, helping to correct the supply/demand imbalance we have been seeing.

-Demand
The frenzie to purchase over-priced goods appears to be slowing. Many of those who had gold to throw at these purchases have now done so. Interest rates are reining in the hastiness in others, and there is a general exhaustion on the demand side.

-Conclusion
Vehicle prices will decline in the next 12 months. In the case of the F 150 Lightning, I believe the pegs are lined up to see a dramatic decline for this vehicle.

If your shoes are worn out, and you absolutely must buy a truck now, then your hand is forced. Otherwise, wait a few months. you will likely save thousands.

P.S.
I told my brother to wait on his Model 3 P purchase a few months ago. Convinced that prices would go up in 2023, he purchased it anyway. "You'll see" he said.

Now he is mad at Elon.
🤦‍♂️
Exactly where did Tesla state that they planned to take the prices for its cars down? When you say "it was well telegraphed" what are you specifically relying upon for that statement? You state that "maybe some of those people did not know where to look for the information * * * * Where should they have looked? I certainly did not think that people paying the same price for a 2 year old Tesla as Tesla charged for a new one would last over the long term. Was this information in the mainstream press (e.g. NY Times, Wall St. Journal) or industry specific publications or somewhere else (e.g. reliable Youtube channels or variable forums like this)?
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Exactly where did Tesla state that they planned to take the prices for its cars down? When you say "it was well telegraphed" what are you specifically relying upon for that statement? You state that "maybe some of those people did not know where to look for the information * * * * Where should they have looked? I certainly did not think that people paying the same price for a 2 year old Tesla as Tesla charged for a new one would last over the long term. Was this information in the mainstream press (e.g. NY Times, Wall St. Journal) or industry specific publications or somewhere else (e.g. reliable Youtube channels or variable forums like this)?
Tesla has a pattern of trying things in China first, have you noticed this model? They dropped prices in China a month before they did here. Based on prior patterns, I sure expected the prices here to follow.

Tesla (well, Elon mostly) has spoken at length about the fact that a primary driver of the 4680 cell technology was to drive down the cost of manufacture, hence the price of the related vehicle. Likewise, mega-casting were touted to do the same. The mega-castings and 4680s reached significant maturation milestones at the end of last year. If Tesla was to be believed that all of this would lower the cost of building cars, then I would have been surprised and disappointed if it had not come to fruition.

There are of course a myriad of other indicators to include economic pressure and market expansion. So no, I was not surprised. I though the move was well telegraphed.
:)
 

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I just told the dealer I won't take delivery of the Lariat ER I ordered. If I had won a 2022 lottery slot I probably would have carried through to purchase. Price increases, loss of tax credit, content deletions = no deal. 92K OTD is just too much money for an ICE conversion with outdated tech.
I'll wait a year for a Cybertruck.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
I just told the dealer I won't take delivery of the Lariat ER I ordered. If I had won a 2022 lottery slot I probably would have carried through to purchase. Price increases, loss of tax credit, content deletions = no deal. 92K OTD is just too much money for an ICE conversion with outdated tech.
I'll wait a year for a Cybertruck.
I know it's not for everybody, but the recent updates to the CT line have me kind of excited as well. I have a first day reservation.
 
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