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I'm little confused after some recent research I've been doing in regards to the ev tax credit. I do understand that this is an evolving situation as the new bill has not been fully passed. My question is as follows, is the credit limited to 200,000 models or 200,000 ev' s by any certain manufacturer? If it's the later,I feel that maybe 30 to 40 percent of us will get it due to ford reaching decent numbers with their current ev lineup.

Sorry if this has been touched on. I was unable to find the thread....newbie here.
 

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I'm little confused after some recent research I've been doing in regards to the ev tax credit. I do understand that this is an evolving situation as the new bill has not been fully passed. My question is as follows, is the credit limited to 200,000 models or 200,000 ev' s by any certain manufacturer? If it's the later,I feel that maybe 30 to 40 percent of us will get it due to ford reaching decent numbers with their current ev lineup.

Sorry if this has been touched on. I was unable to find the thread....newbie here.
The CURRENT tax incentive is limited to 200,000 EVs by a manufacturer. The PROPOSED tax incentive in the Build Back Better bill (passed by House, up for Senate consideration) has no such limit.
 
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The existing tax credit does not have an MSRP cap. The proposed tax credit may end up with an 80k MSRP cap for trucks. However, that’s not certain. It may not even pass.
 

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Since the “current” tax credit seems to be the only option (Senator Coal has effectively killed BBB), the question now is: how many of Ford’s credits are left?
The Ford Focus EV didn’t sell too many, but some. And the Mustang EV is a hot seller, but has limited numbers built. The Ford Transit EV sold a few?

So will Ford reach 200,000 EVs in 2022? 2023? I’m asking as I really don’t know where Ford’s numbers are right now.
 

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I'm sure Ford will wind up doing what GM did to the Bolt and throw the equivalent dollar amount on the hood of the F150 as an incentive vs just saying "deal with it" but it is far too early; I was hoping to at least see the ev credit pass but oh well.
 

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TL;DR: Ford should still be eligible for the full Federal tax credit in all of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.

You can keep track of the sales here: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service
Note that they haven't updated for 2021 Q4 yet.

As of the end of 2021 Q3, Ford had used up 149,595 of their 200,000 credits.
US sales of the Mustang Mach E in 2021 Q4 were 8,285 (Oct: 2,848, Nov: 3,088, Dec: 2,349).
That means Ford has sold approximately 157,880 EVs by the end of 2021.

Mach E production in 2021 was 63,683 with 27,140 of those sold in the US (more than half went to UK and EU).

If we assume the same level of sales of the Mach E in the US, expect about 6,800 sales per quarter in 2022.
If we assume 20,000 Lightnings in 2022, all in the last 2 quarters, that is a maximum of 10,000 in Q3 and 10,000 in Q4. However, it is likely that Lightning sales will be higher in Q4 than Q3.

This suggests that in 2022, Ford will reach
~164,700 by the end of Q1
~171,500 by the end of Q2
~188,300 by the end of Q3
~205,100 by the end of Q4
Sales of eTransits may speed this up. So would selling more of the Mach Es in the US.

In essence, Ford MAY reach the 200,000 at the end of 2022.

According to Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars
"The credit begins to phase out for vehicles at the beginning of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer has sold 200,000 eligible plug-in electric vehicles (i.e., plug-in hybrids and EVs) in the United States as counted from January 1, 2010. IRS will announce when a manufacturer exceeds this production figure and will announce the subsequent phase out schedule (Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales)."

So, if Ford surpasses the 200,000 sales in Q4 of 2022, phaseout begins Q2 of 2023. At that point the incentive on each of their vehicles is cut in half. It continues at that 50% level for the next two quarters. After that, the incentive is halved again, to 25% of its original amount, for the next two quarters. When that period expires, the credits disappear entirely.

Following this calculation, Ford BEVs should be eligible for Federal tax credits of
$7500 through 2023 Q1
$3750 2023 Q2 - Q3
$1875 2023 Q4 - 2024 Q1

This could move up a bit sooner, though, if Ford delivers more Mustang Mach Es to US customers in 2022 than they did in 2023. If ALL of them are sold in the US, that would mean:
~174,000 by the end of Q1
~190,000 by the end of Q2
~206,000 by the end of Q3

Following this calculation, Ford BEVs should be eligible for Federal tax credits of
$7500 through 2022 Q4
$3750 2023 Q1 - Q2
$1875 2023 Q3 - Q4

However, Ford has to sell enough Mustang Mach Es in the UK and EU to avoid major tariffs due to the EU fleet CO2 limits. I'm not sure how many units that is but these EU regulations make this scenario quite unlikely.
 

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The CURRENT tax incentive is limited to 200,000 EVs by a manufacturer. The PROPOSED tax incentive in the Build Back Better bill (passed by House, up for Senate consideration) has no such limit.
BBB phases out when like 25% of car sales are EV. And even then it sunsets. Like around 2030ish. The thing to pay attention to is that currently there is not upper limit on the vslue of the car for the tax credit, but BBB has an 80k upper limit on a truck to be eligible for the 12,500, which , if you are paying attention, is the lariat extended battery With a custom color (79,600, intentional???). The platinum could wind up costing 22k more because it would price out of the 12.5 k BBB credit plus the 10k retail cost. That back Massage in the platinum seat better have a happy ending attachment.
But it’s important to watch this, because Manchin says he is willing to work with the environmental portion of BBB, and the credit can back date to Jan 1 of this year. AND, you can’t choose your credit, meaning, if they do pass it, and you get the platinum, you can’t choose the current 7500 credit. So, if they pass it at some point this year and you get the platinum, you don’t get sheeeeeeit.
 

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The CURRENT tax incentive is limited to 200,000 EVs by a manufacturer. The PROPOSED tax incentive in the Build Back Better bill (passed by House, up for Senate consideration) has no such limit.
Not true.....currently, the tax break is $7500 for the first 200k vehicles.....the new Manchin blocked bill is $12,500 for the first 200k vehicles. The Mach E is built in Mexico, so it doesn't apply.
 

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Not true.....currently, the tax break is $7500 for the first 200k vehicles.....the new Manchin blocked bill is $12,500 for the first 200k vehicles. The Mach E is built in Mexico, so it doesn't apply.
The proposed Build Back Better bill has a range of tax credits ranging from $4,000-12,500 depending on numerous factors, where it is built is one of them. I am unaware of there being a 200,000 vehicle limit. Where is that found in the bill?
 
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TL;DR: Ford should still be eligible for the full Federal tax credit in all of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.

You can keep track of the sales here: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service
Note that they haven't updated for 2021 Q4 yet.

As of the end of 2021 Q3, Ford had used up 149,595 of their 200,000 credits.
US sales of the Mustang Mach E in 2021 Q4 were 8,285 (Oct: 2,848, Nov: 3,088, Dec: 2,349).
That means Ford has sold approximately 157,880 EVs by the end of 2021.

Mach E production in 2021 was 63,683 with 27,140 of those sold in the US (more than half went to UK and EU).

If we assume the same level of sales of the Mach E in the US, expect about 6,800 sales per quarter in 2022.
If we assume 20,000 Lightnings in 2022, all in the last 2 quarters, that is a maximum of 10,000 in Q3 and 10,000 in Q4. However, it is likely that Lightning sales will be higher in Q4 than Q3.

This suggests that in 2022, Ford will reach
~164,700 by the end of Q1
~171,500 by the end of Q2
~188,300 by the end of Q3
~205,100 by the end of Q4
Sales of eTransits may speed this up. So would selling more of the Mach Es in the US.

In essence, Ford MAY reach the 200,000 at the end of 2022.

According to Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars
"The credit begins to phase out for vehicles at the beginning of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer has sold 200,000 eligible plug-in electric vehicles (i.e., plug-in hybrids and EVs) in the United States as counted from January 1, 2010. IRS will announce when a manufacturer exceeds this production figure and will announce the subsequent phase out schedule (Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales)."

So, if Ford surpasses the 200,000 sales in Q4 of 2022, phaseout begins Q2 of 2023. At that point the incentive on each of their vehicles is cut in half. It continues at that 50% level for the next two quarters. After that, the incentive is halved again, to 25% of its original amount, for the next two quarters. When that period expires, the credits disappear entirely.

Following this calculation, Ford BEVs should be eligible for Federal tax credits of
$7500 through 2023 Q1
$3750 2023 Q2 - Q3
$1875 2023 Q4 - 2024 Q1

This could move up a bit sooner, though, if Ford delivers more Mustang Mach Es to US customers in 2022 than they did in 2023. If ALL of them are sold in the US, that would mean:
~174,000 by the end of Q1
~190,000 by the end of Q2
~206,000 by the end of Q3

Following this calculation, Ford BEVs should be eligible for Federal tax credits of
$7500 through 2022 Q4
$3750 2023 Q1 - Q2
$1875 2023 Q3 - Q4

However, Ford has to sell enough Mustang Mach Es in the UK and EU to avoid major tariffs due to the EU fleet CO2 limits. I'm not sure how many units that is but these EU regulations make this scenario quite unlikely.
This post is a great layout and overview- and it shows that if Ford wanted to play a little game, they could get the existing credit to a lot more people, but most waiting in the US would not be happy, and Ford isn't likely going to go to bat for the consumer.

However, if they are getting close to the 200K number near the end of a quarter they could delay those deliveries until the beginning of the next quarter or redirect to Canada or other country and let the US sit right at the 199,500 deliveries until the first week of the next quarter. Crossing the line at the beginning of the quarter is ideal and will get the current credit into a lot more hands of the consumers.
 
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BBB phases out when like 25% of car sales are EV. And even then it sunsets. Like around 2030ish. The thing to pay attention to is that currently there is not upper limit on the vslue of the car for the tax credit, but BBB has an 80k upper limit on a truck to be eligible for the 12,500, which , if you are paying attention, is the lariat extended battery With a custom color (79,600, intentional???). The platinum could wind up costing 22k more because it would price out of the 12.5 k BBB credit plus the 10k retail cost. That back Massage in the platinum seat better have a happy ending attachment.
But it’s important to watch this, because Manchin says he is willing to work with the environmental portion of BBB, and the credit can back date to Jan 1 of this year. AND, you can’t choose your credit, meaning, if they do pass it, and you get the platinum, you can’t choose the current 7500 credit. So, if they pass it at some point this year and you get the platinum, you don’t get sheeeeeeit.
I believe the $79K number was very intentional - just in case BBB passes.
 
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