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Reservations vs Production: Where do you stand?

4737 Views 7 Replies 3 Participants Last post by  lllaible1
I pulled together numbers reservations by date vs. production estimates but realized they were a bit buried in a thread. Note that this does not speak to reservations numbers that are a much more complicated issue. I recommend you ignore the number and just think about the date of your reservation.

Comparing reservations with planned production numbers:
  • 20,000 in 12 hours (May 20)
  • 44,500 in 48 hours (May 21)
  • 70,000 in about 8 days (May 27)
  • 100,000 in about three weeks (June 9)
  • 150,000 in about 4 months (September 16)
  • 160,000 reservations in 5-1/2 months (November)
These numbers don't include fleet reservations (https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/ford...shh2Zl63SfECsu-GqYEY5YpWCAeBmCcyW7DSCycajv7hc)

Production estimates:
  • 2022 15,000-30,000 (unofficial with best guess close to 20,000)
  • 2023 55,000 (August estimate)
  • 2024 80,000 (August estimate) 160,000 possible? ( Ford's November statements)
August estimates from Ford Said To Double F-150 Lightning Production Target Already
The November story has Ford doubling production again within 24 months, which I read to be 2024 production (Ford plans to double EV production in two years).

Then there is the question of conversion. Ford is expecting an 80% conversion of reservations to orders.

More at Ford plans to double EV production in two years

All in all, that means we are probably looking at a reservation to production comparison of:
Reservation DateNumber of Deliveries per YearTotal DeliveriesModel Year Produced
May 19-20 (or maybe May 22)20,00020,0002022
Rest of May (perhaps early June)55,00075,0002023
June to ???80,000-160,000155,000-235,0002024
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Aren't those Ford Priority codes instead of reservation conversion line order?
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