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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I pulled together numbers reservations by date vs. production estimates but realized they were a bit buried in a thread. Note that this does not speak to reservations numbers that are a much more complicated issue. I recommend you ignore the number and just think about the date of your reservation.

Comparing reservations with planned production numbers:
  • 20,000 in 12 hours (May 20)
  • 44,500 in 48 hours (May 21)
  • 70,000 in about 8 days (May 27)
  • 100,000 in about three weeks (June 9)
  • 150,000 in about 4 months (September 16)
  • 160,000 reservations in 5-1/2 months (November)
These numbers don't include fleet reservations (https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/ford...shh2Zl63SfECsu-GqYEY5YpWCAeBmCcyW7DSCycajv7hc)

Production estimates:
  • 2022 15,000-30,000 (unofficial with best guess close to 20,000)
  • 2023 55,000 (August estimate)
  • 2024 80,000 (August estimate) 160,000 possible? ( Ford's November statements)
August estimates from Ford Said To Double F-150 Lightning Production Target Already
The November story has Ford doubling production again within 24 months, which I read to be 2024 production (Ford plans to double EV production in two years).

Then there is the question of conversion. Ford is expecting an 80% conversion of reservations to orders.



More at Ford plans to double EV production in two years

All in all, that means we are probably looking at a reservation to production comparison of:
Reservation DateNumber of Deliveries per YearTotal DeliveriesModel Year Produced
May 19-20 (or maybe May 22)20,00020,0002022
Rest of May (perhaps early June)55,00075,0002023
June to ???80,000-160,000155,000-235,0002024
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Note that Dealers will have an ability to prioritize some customers. What this means to you is that your order in the reservation process matters for delivery but your dealer may be able to move a limited number of customers ahead of even very early reservations:

-------------------------------------------------

Publish Date: December 8, 2021
Due Date (If Applicable): N/A
Information: Launch Announcement/Update: EFC09650 22MY F-150 Lightning - Preparing for Order Bank Opening
Target Dealer Group: Ford Dealerships
Target Audience: Dealer Principals, General Managers, Sales Managers, Internet Sales Managers
Target Dept(s): X New Sales I CPO/Used Sales X Fleet Sales I Finance I Parts I Service

ACTION REQUESTED
  • Work with your FordDirect website provider to remove all messaging and links to the Ford.com F-150 Lightning reservation system
  • Review Retail Customer Dealer Prioritization Process and take action by December 17th
  • Ensure your team is familiar with the 22MY F-150 Lightning Retail Customer Waved Invitation
  • Approach & Ford Pro Fleet Customer Ordering Process
  • Review your 22MY Dealer Pricing in Vehicle Locator Plus

BACKGROUND
  • Ford is proud to communicate the revolutionary all-new, all-electric F-150 Lightning is getting one step closer to launch.
  • In order to prepare for the upcoming order bank opening, Ford will close the reservation system for F-150 Lightning on December 8th.
  • The customer order bank opens in January 2022. 22MY F-150 Lightning production begins in Spring 2022.
  • Due to extraordinarily high demand, not all reservation holders will receive an invitation to place an order for 22MY.
  • Ford is implementing a unique retail "reservation to order" process for F-150 Lightning to help efficiently convert existing reservations to orders.
  • Our goal is to communicate information when available to help customers make informed decisions and understand where their vehicle is in the production process through delivery, once they are able to submit an order.
  • Retail & Fleet Customer ordering will follow separate processes:
    • Retail Process: Ford will implement a waved invitation approach to retail reservation holders to place their orders. Retail customers invited to place an order will be provided directional delivery timing expectations at time of order submission. (Note: Reservation holders may cancel their reservation at any time prior to order conversion for a refund of their reservation deposit).
    • Fleet Process: Ford Pro has been collecting fleet registration interest at http://www.fleet.ford.com from fleet hand raisers since reveal. In addition, Dealers have been able to submit fleet registration interest on behalf of their customers through this same website. Starting in January, notifications will be sent to fleet hand raisers via email urging them to contact their preferred dealerships to place their orders.

TIER 3 RESERVATION SYSTEM MESSAGING AND LINKS REMOVAL
  • The F-150 Lightning Reservation experience on Ford.com will be turned off on December 8th.
  • Work with your FordDirect website provider to remove all messaging and links to the Ford.com F-150 Lightning reservation system.
  • Remove mentions of the reservation option for F-150 Lightning from any future messages (i.e. emails, social posts, website banners, etc.).
  • Considering changing CAs to "Learn More" that link to Ford.com F-150 Lightning website.

RETAIL CUSTOMER DEALER PRIORITIZATION PROCESS
  • Each dealer will have the ability to prioritize a small number of loyal customers who are reservation holders.
  • Dealers should utilize https://cni.dealerconnection.combetween December 8th to 17th in order to complete the prioritization process.
    • Deadline: Friday, December 17th at 11:59:59 PM Eastern (No exceptions)
    • Number of customer prioritizations allowed is based on reservation volume at each
      specific dealership as of December 1st
    • Dealers with <50 Reservations = 5 prioritizations available, 50-100 Reservations = 10
      prioritizations available, & >100 Reservations = 25 prioritizations available
  • Prioritization does not guarantee allocation. Dealer prioritization will be an input to
    determine invitations to convert to an order, it is not correlated to vehicle scheduling timing or
    amount of allocation at each dealership.
  • See F-150 Lightning Preparing For Order Bank Opening Playbook for step-by-step guide on
    how to prioritize select reservation holders.
RETAIL CUSTOMER WAVE INVITATION OVERVIEW
  • Ford is implementing a unique retail “reservation to order” process for F-150 Lightning to help efficiently convert existing reservations to orders. Our goal is to communicate information when available to help customers make informed decisions.
  • Prior to order bank opening, all reservation holders will receive an email confirming their reservation, outlining the wave order process to begin in January 2022 and explaining that due to high demand, not all reservation holders will be receiving a 22MY invitation.
  • At various stages in the process, reservation holders will be given the option to maintain their reservation for future model years. Regardless, reservations may be cancelled at any time with a full refund.
  • Ford will begin inviting reservation holders to place orders in waves starting at order bank open in January 2022. Subsequent waves will receive an invitation in approximate two-week intervals until 22MY production capacity is fulfilled.
  • Customer wave invitations will be based on a number of factors including reservation timing, Dealer estimated allocation & Dealer prioritization.
  • Prior to each wave invitation, the Ford.com online configurator will be updated to provide directional ETA’s of vehicle delivery timing based on the availability of each configuration.
• As certain configurations become unavailable due to demand, the configurator will be updated to remove the ordering capability of that configuration.
  • For customers invited to submit a 22MY order who find that their desired configuration is unavailable, the customer can either elect to maintain their reservation for a subsequent model year, work with their dealer to modify their order for a different configuration or cancel their reservation for a full refund – again, at any time. (Note: Future model year pricing will be provided when available)
  • Dealers will receive the list of their reservation holders invited for that wave prior to invitations being sent for each wave.
• A dealer can look up any customer via the F-150 Lightning Reservation to Order Program site to confirm whether their customer has received an invitation within a specific wave.
  • Once 22MY production capacity is met, all remaining reservation holders will be notified that their next ordering opportunity will be for a subsequent model year. Again, they will be reminded of the option to hold their reservation or cancel for a full refund at any time.
  • Fleet orders follow a separate process; fleet orders being submitted at order bank open do not have an impact on the retail customer waved invitations or dealer prioritization.

RETAIL CUSTOMER RESERVATION TO ORDER PROCESS
• F-150 Lightning will leverage both online & offline reservation to order conversion based on retail customer preference
  • All retail customers will need an invitation to convert their reservation to order to place an order
  • ONLY orders that are converted (either online or offline) will be selected for production scheduling
    • Order Amendments should be made in WBDO
    • CONCEPS orders & amendments will not be accepted (will result in compatibility
      errors)
  • See F-150 Lightning Preparing For Order Bank Opening Playbook for complete details

FLEET CUSTOMER ORDERING PROCESS
  • As part of the reveal of the F-150 Lightning, Ford has been collecting registration interest at http://www.fleet.ford.com from fleet hand raisers. Also, Dealers have been able to submit fleet registration interest on behalf of their customers through this same website.
  • Starting January 2022, the Fleet Order Bank will open for 22MY F-150 Lightning. At that time, notifications will be sent to fleet hand raisers via e-mail urging them to contact their preferred dealership to place their orders. In addition, please reach out to your interested fleet customers and submit their orders into the fleet order bank when ordering begins.
  • Once the order bank opens any registration interest should be converted to an order in CONCEPS or Fleet-WBDO. This would include fleet customers who have been working with your dealership and any fleet customer that directly contacts your dealership going forward.
  • Due to the overwhelming demand for the F-150 Lightning, not all fleet orders will be able to be produced as 22MY units. Please set expectations with your customers accordingly.
  • Entering an order into the fleet order bank does not guarantee that it will be produced as a 22MY.
  • F-150 Lightning. When it comes time to schedule fleet orders, additional criteria beyond when the order was placed into the order bank will be used to determine when the vehicle will be built.
  • Any non-fleet order types, or non-FIN code orders will not be scheduled, and dealers will risk losing retail allocation on F-150 Lightning if these types of orders are entered into the fleet order bank.

DEALER PRICING
Review your Dealer Pricing in Vehicle Locator Plus for 22MY F-150 Lightning
  • Access the Vehicle Locator Plus at https://www.vlplus.dealerconnection.com
  • Dealers will have three (3) options to price F-150 Lightning
    1. Default to MSRP if no pricing is set by dealer (No action required)
    2. Price all F-150’s at same level (Includes F-150 Lightning)
    3. Set specific F-150 Lightning pricing by:
      • Select “F-150”
      • Select “22MY”
      • Select “W1E” Body Type
      • Select & set pricing by F-150 Lightning PEP codes (Pro 110A, XLT 311A,
        XLT 312A, LARIAT 510A, LARIAT 511A, Platinum 710A)
      • Select & set pricing by battery if desired (Standard-Range Battery,
        Extended-Range Battery)
  • See F-150 Lightning Preparing For Order Bank Opening Playbook for further guidance
  • Contact Vehicle Locate Plus at [email protected] for assistance
 

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Administrator
2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning Lariat ER
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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
My salesman said I and 3 others was at #2 some at #4 and #5 and other at still at #19 anyone know what is means?
Perhaps you are at #2 and those 3 others are at 4, 5, and 19 on the dealer priority list? Without knowing why he is telling you about those other people it is hard to say. That message is nearly gibberish.

What I can tell you is that dealers have the opportunity to prioritize reservations for conversion to orders. Check out the playbook for more:
 

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I didn't understand what he was getting at. I reserved Dec 12, 2021 so I asked how I could be at #2 when I knew others must have reserved way before me. He then said I wasn't #2 to order but I was #2 for something. Then stated I maybe be able to order next spring. I still think I'm out 1 1/2 to 2 years.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
I didn't understand what he was getting at. I reserved Dec 12, 2021 so I asked how I could be at #2 when I knew others must have reserved way before me. He then said I wasn't #2 to order but I was #2 for something. Then stated I maybe be able to order next spring. I still think I'm out 1 1/2 to 2 years.
Sounds like you need to get clarification from your dealer.
 

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Aren't those Ford Priority codes instead of reservation conversion line order?
 
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