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Reservations made the first night

10K views 37 replies 19 participants last post by  ChrisC 
#1 ·
Does anyone know how many reservations were made the first night they went live?
 
#2 ·
Not sure but @EVinterest shared this interesting and concerning take.
"If there are about 200,000 reservations, and Ford is only making 15,000 trucks in 2022, that means that over 90% of us are not getting a truck next year. Am I wrong?
I think Ford should make that known if that's true.
Also, I have no idea how many each dealership is getting. But I sincerely doubt I am going to be in the first 15,000 that reserved."
 
#3 ·
Sure, it’s right here:
 
#7 ·
Comparing reservations with planned production numbers:
  • 20,000 in 12 hours (May 20)
  • 44,500 in 48 hours (May 21)
  • 70,000 in about 8 days (May 27)
  • 100,000 in about three weeks (June 9)
  • 150,000 in about 4 months (September 16)
  • 160,000 reservations in 5-1/2 months (November)
These numbers don't include fleet reservations (https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/ford...shh2Zl63SfECsu-GqYEY5YpWCAeBmCcyW7DSCycajv7hc)

Production estimates:
  • 2022 15,000-30,000 (unofficial with best guess close to 20,000)
  • 2023 55,000 (August estimate)
  • 2024 80,000 (August estimate)
August estimates from Ford Said To Double F-150 Lightning Production Target Already
The latest story has Ford doubling production again within 24 months, which I read to be 2024 production (Ford plans to double EV production in two years).

Then there is the question of conversion. Ford is expecting an 80% conversion of reservations to orders.



More at Ford plans to double EV production in two years

All in all, that means we are probably looking at a reservation to production comparison of:
Reservation DateNumber of Deliveries per YearTotal DeliveriesModel Year Produced
May 19-20 (or maybe May 22)20,00020,0002022
Rest of May (perhaps early June)55,00075,0002023
June to ???80,000-160,000155,000-235,0002024
 
#8 ·
Yep this puts me on the edge of being in the 2024 column. Keep in mind that what you pick for options affects when your truck will be delivered beyond your reservation number, however, with that in mind I just emailed my dealer. Going to order a Maverick with the gas motor and awd. I need a new vehicle now. Based on all the numbers out there it’s my best option and I’ll trade it in when I take delivery.
 
#12 ·
My reservation confirmation hit my inbox at 9:03 AM (CDT). the announcement was at 8:30 (CDT) on the 19th. I couldn't confirm the exact time the reservation system went live, but there is a good chance I'm in the first 20,000 so I HOPE I can get mine in 2022, but being realistic my best hopes are probably for late in the year.... we'll see
 
#13 ·
The system went live about 45 minutes into the reveal presentation that started at 9:30 pm EDT on the 19th. My reservation was at 10:19 pm EDT on the 19th. I'm sure some folks managed to get in and make their reservations a bit sooner.
 
#19 ·
What a coincidence my reservation went in at the exact same time and date...there was a glitch, I was told by a Ford rep and I ended up on the 3rd wave.....what wave are you in?
I ordered during Wave #2.
 
#20 ·
I ordered during Wave #2.
Thanks for answering so fast, you must be like me on the computer checking everything constantly. I'm still trying to get this straightened out. I'm first on my Dealers list, but being in the 3rd wave I don't know how it's going to end up. My reservation # 10826457....on my Ford site it shows a blue ball that says order in progress, been like that since 2/3.
 
#15 ·
Product Organism Font Technology Screenshot


Hmmm, mine went through pretty fast (mountain time zone). I was getting texts in late October telling me to get ready to configure my order by the local dealership, which ended up being wrong, but I assumed I wouldn’t get a truck till 2023 since Ford is only making 20k or so in 2022. But maybe I got in fast enough for 2022? That would be great.
 
#17 ·
View attachment 670

Hmmm, mine went through pretty fast (mountain time zone). I was getting texts in late October telling me to get ready to configure my order by the local dealership, which ended up being wrong, but I assumed I wouldn’t get a truck till 2023 since Ford is only making 20k or so in 2022. But maybe I got in fast enough for 2022? That would be great.
I hope you get it in 2022! Could them calling it a MY2022 vehicle indicate that? Do you know what allocation is like at your dealer and where along it you are?
 
#31 ·
I reserved one opening night (5/19/2021), but didn't place my order until 3/30/22. I was a part of Wave 1 as far as I know but I procrastinated a while before ordering one. Dealer said I was #1 of their ~100 reservations so they were excited for my order. Build week scheduled 6/6.
 
#32 ·
Best I can tell, my reservation that was confirmed two seconds after reservations opened on the 19th means absolutely nothing. The Dealer that Ford's website hooked me up with will get, maybe, two. I was first, then they bumped me for their demo, which makes sense. Heard nothing, but followed up to learn I am maybe #15 after their own sales managers, friends, and families got pushed ahead of me on their list.

Ordered two Mavericks a year ago. They are not coming either.

Ford shareholder for over 20 years; means nothing.

Bought five Fords and four Ford trucks in the past, means nothing.

The dealer did kind of hint that they might sell me their demo for $80k over MSRP. I am not that buyer and they can't even get their demo delivered.

The Ford Lightning = Tesla CyberTruck = BigFoot. I get excited at ever sighting and look at the pictures. Starting to think I'll never see a Lightning, CT or a Maverick in my driveway. Maybe the Loch Ness Monster is real.
 
#33 ·
One thing I will give Tesla credit for is that first order in is first order out, unless they match you with a someone else's cancelled order and then they give you the choice, in order. Fairness is appreciated.

All Ford's dealers do is add expense, delay and friction in the transaction. Tesla's system requires some faith, but it works better. All the internet excitement about service is overblown. I've had a very good owner experience with minor services (tire rotation, new 12V battery that simply timed out replaced for free) completed in my driveway by mobile tech.
 
#38 ·
I made my reservation on day one, hour one and still no email to order my vehicle. I figured it was because my local dealer is not very big. I switched to a larger dealer because I did not want to pay the 10K markup that they said they would charge, but I am not sure where that puts me in the que.. did I drop in line or stay the same? I did answer the survey but not sure if the XLTs are gone for 2023.. as a loyal Ford customer, this is so frustrating :(
 
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