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Not sure but @EVinterest shared this interesting and concerning take.
"If there are about 200,000 reservations, and Ford is only making 15,000 trucks in 2022, that means that over 90% of us are not getting a truck next year. Am I wrong?
I think Ford should make that known if that's true.
Also, I have no idea how many each dealership is getting. But I sincerely doubt I am going to be in the first 15,000 that reserved."
 

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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Does anyone know how many reservations were made the first night they went live?
Sure, it’s right here:
 

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Yeah that’s pretty concerning. I really can’t wait that long. I’m probably somewhere around 70k in the reservations. I need a truck, so some info would be nice. If I have to find a stop gap vehicle I’d like to know ASAP
 

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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Estimates are between 15,000-30,000 trucks will be produced in 2022, probably closer to the low end.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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Comparing reservations with planned production numbers:
  • 20,000 in 12 hours (May 20)
  • 44,500 in 48 hours (May 21)
  • 70,000 in about 8 days (May 27)
  • 100,000 in about three weeks (June 9)
  • 150,000 in about 4 months (September 16)
  • 160,000 reservations in 5-1/2 months (November)
These numbers don't include fleet reservations (https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/ford...shh2Zl63SfECsu-GqYEY5YpWCAeBmCcyW7DSCycajv7hc)

Production estimates:
  • 2022 15,000-30,000 (unofficial with best guess close to 20,000)
  • 2023 55,000 (August estimate)
  • 2024 80,000 (August estimate)
August estimates from Ford Said To Double F-150 Lightning Production Target Already
The latest story has Ford doubling production again within 24 months, which I read to be 2024 production (Ford plans to double EV production in two years).

Then there is the question of conversion. Ford is expecting an 80% conversion of reservations to orders.

More at Ford plans to double EV production in two years

All in all, that means we are probably looking at a reservation to production comparison of:
Reservation DateNumber of Deliveries per YearTotal DeliveriesModel Year Produced
May 19-20 (or maybe May 22)20,00020,0002022
Rest of May (perhaps early June)55,00075,0002023
June to ???80,000-160,000155,000-235,0002024
 

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Yep this puts me on the edge of being in the 2024 column. Keep in mind that what you pick for options affects when your truck will be delivered beyond your reservation number, however, with that in mind I just emailed my dealer. Going to order a Maverick with the gas motor and awd. I need a new vehicle now. Based on all the numbers out there it’s my best option and I’ll trade it in when I take delivery.
 

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Well I don't really need any new cars right now so can afford to wait. On the positive side if you take delivery in 2024 hopefully Ford will have the bugs worked out from the first year models. Battery technology continues to improve so maybe even longer ranges.
 

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Well I don't really need any new cars right now so can afford to wait. On the positive side if you take delivery in 2024 hopefully Ford will have the bugs worked out from the first year models. Battery technology continues to improve so maybe even longer ranges.
Sandy Munro (not sure if anyone here watches his stuff) but he thinks highly of Fords battery tech, this was after dissecting a Mach-E.
 

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Well I don't really need any new cars right now so can afford to wait. On the positive side if you take delivery in 2024 hopefully Ford will have the bugs worked out from the first year models. Battery technology continues to improve so maybe even longer ranges.
I hope so. I have a accord with a dead cylinder. Also I am an electrician an do a ton of side work so I’m overflowing with tools. Buying a used truck right now would be a terrible value in comparison. Maintenance, fuel, depreciation, repairs. Even in a normal economy that thing is such a value. In 2013 when I bought my car if there was something like a maverick for that kind of price I would have been breaking down the doors to buy it. Couple of kids later and I’d prefer to buy the lightning.
 

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My reservation confirmation hit my inbox at 9:03 AM (CDT). the announcement was at 8:30 (CDT) on the 19th. I couldn't confirm the exact time the reservation system went live, but there is a good chance I'm in the first 20,000 so I HOPE I can get mine in 2022, but being realistic my best hopes are probably for late in the year.... we'll see
 

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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My reservation confirmation hit my inbox at 9:03 AM (CDT). the announcement was at 8:30 (CDT) on the 19th. I couldn't confirm the exact time the reservation system went live, but there is a good chance I'm in the first 20,000 so I HOPE I can get mine in 2022, but being realistic my best hopes are probably for late in the year.... we'll see
The system went live about 45 minutes into the reveal presentation that started at 9:30 pm EDT on the 19th. My reservation was at 10:19 pm EDT on the 19th. I'm sure some folks managed to get in and make their reservations a bit sooner.
 

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I hope so. I have a accord with a dead cylinder. Also I am an electrician an do a ton of side work so I’m overflowing with tools. Buying a used truck right now would be a terrible value in comparison. Maintenance, fuel, depreciation, repairs. Even in a normal economy that thing is such a value. In 2013 when I bought my car if there was something like a maverick for that kind of price I would have been breaking down the doors to buy it. Couple of kids later and I’d prefer to buy the lightning.
Probably the biggest hack to buying used these days and not get taken to the cleaners is to buy from a private seller in a small town.
Just make sure it's someone that wants it gone more than they want a good deal.
 

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Hmmm, mine went through pretty fast (mountain time zone). I was getting texts in late October telling me to get ready to configure my order by the local dealership, which ended up being wrong, but I assumed I wouldn’t get a truck till 2023 since Ford is only making 20k or so in 2022. But maybe I got in fast enough for 2022? That would be great.
 

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Probably the biggest hack to buying used these days and not get taken to the cleaners is to buy from a private seller in a small town.
Just make sure it's someone that wants it gone more than they want a good deal.
That’s probably the best way to go for used but used is still really losing a lot of the benefits. Especially for trucks. The fact that my brother bought a mint older f550 and it’s like 8 years later and still worth the almost the same amount is crazy. Keep in mind your average person looking at used vehicles probably doesn’t have 20-25k in cash to drop on a truck. That’s really what you would need to spend to get anything decent that’s not going to land you with some maintenance/repair fees. (Yes I know there are exceptions but it’s a gamble) so most are going to need to finance. It really is sadly true that without money or credit the cards are stacked against you. That Maverick represents an amazing value, I’m surprised there aren’t even more people trying to buy one, same with the lightning.
 

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View attachment 670

Hmmm, mine went through pretty fast (mountain time zone). I was getting texts in late October telling me to get ready to configure my order by the local dealership, which ended up being wrong, but I assumed I wouldn’t get a truck till 2023 since Ford is only making 20k or so in 2022. But maybe I got in fast enough for 2022? That would be great.
I hope you get it in 2022! Could them calling it a MY2022 vehicle indicate that? Do you know what allocation is like at your dealer and where along it you are?
 
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