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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Hi there. I was wondering if anyone who has been tracking reservations and orders based on the date of reservation if they have any idea when I might be able to order my lightning. My reservation date is September 3, 2021. Even an educated guess would be awesome! Thanks in advance.
 

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Reservations started on May 19, 2021. The stopped in December with over 200,000. Orders this first year haven't even taken care of all of the first day reservationists. If Ford could ramp up to just 50K next year (and I have my doubts they can) you are likely 2 years away.
 
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Reservations started on May 19, 2021. The stopped in December with over 200,000. Orders this first year haven't even taken care of all of the first day reservationists. If Ford could ramp up to just 50K next year (and I have my doubts they can) you are likely 2 years away.
You don't think they can get to 150k a year by the end of 2023? I think we'd get a better idea at the end of this year but at this point I'm willing to believe they will.

@thelundys I think you'd be able to order in the 4 Quarter or 1st but not get it until sometime next year depending on what you order and how they do priorities after MY22.
 
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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
You don't think they can get to 150k a year by the end of 2023? I think we'd get a better idea at the end of this year but at this point I'm willing to believe they will.

@thelundys I think you'd be able to order in the 4 Quarter or 1st but not get it until sometime next year depending on what you order and how they do priorities after MY22.
This makes sense too. The other consideration is with the economy doing what it's doing, after they get through the high-conversion-rate early adopters, the order conversion rate could start dropping off a bit the more they get further into their reservations.
 

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You don't think they can get to 150k a year by the end of 2023? I think we'd get a better idea at the end of this year but at this point I'm willing to believe they will.

@thelundys I think you'd be able to order in the 4 Quarter or 1st but not get it until sometime next year depending on what you order and how they do priorities after MY22.
I absolutely believe that Ford is working as hard as they can to make a rate of 150K/year by the end of 2023 as they have said they would I think they will probably get there. However, that will mean a 150 truck/year rate by December of 2023, which means MY2024 trucks.

Ford never said they would make 150K trucks in 2023.
 

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You don't think they can get to 150k a year by the end of 2023? I think we'd get a better idea at the end of this year but at this point I'm willing to believe they will.

@thelundys I think you'd be able to order in the 4 Quarter or 1st but not get it until sometime next year depending on what you order and how they do priorities after MY22.
I truly don't. Too many unknown factors. Chips/parts/batteries, etc. They can't keep cheating the ICE business. That is their bread and butter for too many years. They took 200K reservations for the Lightning, but I believe they used to make close to 1M ICE trucks a year.

Plus I just don't think they can put this much effort into the ramp of this truck focusing on the new factory, new design and moving to the new location in a couple of years.

I'm hopeful if they can, but I don't see it happening. 50K for MY 2023, maybe more for 2024 is my prediction.
 

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I sit somewhere around the 170,000th reservation. I was expecting to order 3rd quarter 2023 but wouldn't be at all surprised to wait longer. A year out is actually about when I'd like to order. Two years out I'm not too excited about waiting that long. 😒 but glad I have my name in the hat.

Wondering if Ford will credit us interest on our $100 deposit. Haha
 

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I think they’ll open up the first 2023 wave orders next month. I think they’ll make a concerted effort to shake the reservation list out and work through it by end of MY23. They won’t need to produce quite 150,000 to do that. As @thelundys said, the economy is different than it was on 5/19/21. Jamie Dimon has activated the warning siren.

 

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I think they’ll open up the first 2023 wave orders next month. I think they’ll make a concerted effort to shake the reservation list out and work through it by end of MY23. They won’t need to produce quite 150,000 to do that. As @thelundys said, the economy is different than it was on 5/19/21. Jamie Dimon has activated the warning siren.

Well we are certainly due a recession.
 

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The dealer I spoke to in VA said that only 60% of people who placed reservations are converting them to orders so making a new reservation may be sooner than you think. He told me that the internal word they got from ford was after July 15, 2022 reservations would open up. He told me to watch the Ford site and when it opens up just make a reservation with their dealership.
 
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