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How many of these early deliveries will immediately be resold after purchase? Guesses? Any idea of resell value? I'm hearing the Broncos are still $10K over MSRP, but can't personally confirm that.
Resale Value
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I agree very very few will be resold. There might be a couple preparing to do that and there might be a few more if someone has deep pockets, but I'm not believing that many will go for the $20 - $30K over sticker in a resell as many talk about. When the money changes hand I'll be convinced. Until then it is talk. Most are buying because they want the truck.
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I don't know. Ford announcing another EV truck already, Chevy and Dodge coming out with theirs soon and Tesla, maybe next year; the value of this EV truck is short lived. It isn't a Raptor. I also feel like Toyota and at least Kia (maybe) are about to announce something.
2023 model year is already going to start this year, at least and they've announced improvements I'm interested in (I am a bit jealous of those that are lined up to get a 2023MY). I actually think the value of my 2022MY may drop because of it. Especially if Ford is saying that the new infotainment stack is not backwards compatible with 2022MY. That worries me that they may not support 2022MY software as well. I can understand Rivian's value shooting up because they aren't producing like Ford is. This year is like the 3rd year for the wait for some people on the reservation list for the Rivian and by comparison, the Lightning only took a year. By next year there will potentially be 200k+ Lightnings on the road.
IMHO anyone paying a significant amount over MSRP for the Lightning specifically is just impatient. But to each their own. The market is about to be flooded with EV trucks which, I would think, kills the value of your buy if you end up paying even MSRP.
2023 model year is already going to start this year, at least and they've announced improvements I'm interested in (I am a bit jealous of those that are lined up to get a 2023MY). I actually think the value of my 2022MY may drop because of it. Especially if Ford is saying that the new infotainment stack is not backwards compatible with 2022MY. That worries me that they may not support 2022MY software as well. I can understand Rivian's value shooting up because they aren't producing like Ford is. This year is like the 3rd year for the wait for some people on the reservation list for the Rivian and by comparison, the Lightning only took a year. By next year there will potentially be 200k+ Lightnings on the road.
IMHO anyone paying a significant amount over MSRP for the Lightning specifically is just impatient. But to each their own. The market is about to be flooded with EV trucks which, I would think, kills the value of your buy if you end up paying even MSRP.
Not sure, considering you can't even order one right now, my bet is they'll be in pretty high-demand, at least in the near term future. They received 200,000 reservations. Said they're capable of producing 150,000 per year once they reach full production rates. I think I heard only 15,000 or so made it in for the 2022 model year. That means they still have 185,000 outstanding orders that are being pushed back to 2023. If 150,000 is the max, that means they won't be able to even fulfil all of the original reservations in 2023 either. Given, I would assume there will be cancellations that likely will put them pretty close. But, if you really need the ONLY EV "work truck" on the market and haven't placed an order for one yet, that means the earliest you are likely to get one will be a 2024 model year, maybe towards the end of 2023. So, it's going to be roughly a 1 1/2 year wait if you decided today that you want one. That's still a pretty long wait.
Rivian only has around 70,000 reservations. They're not capable of producing that many by the end of 2023. Thus, even if it worked, it's another one that's not available to someone wanting an EV truck.
The Silverado will be the same story. Won't be released until late next year.
So, demand for an EV truck is going to be pretty strong for AT LEAST the next year. Even if Toyota and others announce new EV trucks, those too are going to be at least two years out.
Ford has a golden opportunity to really capture the market with what is effectively already an outdated truck being a body on frame design, knowing that in a couple of years, an all new one will be released. But, being that they're using the same chassis and swapping out ICE parts for EV parts, they're cost to produce them is likely quite low, relatively speaking. Despite that, they're still able to charge over $70,000 on nearly all of the orders.
Ford has to love being Ford right now. They're going to make a fortune on these things. Customers that don't get stuck with a "no sell in 1 year" clause will likely benefit as well. "guessing" at least a 20% premium. After the 10% customers will have paid in sales tax and license fees (give or take), still will be able to make a tidy profit on them for a while.
$80,000 Rivan's are selling at $125,000 plus. They are more niche and more limited supply, so I don't think Fords will these that kind of margin. But, 20% will likely be the norm. May 30% for the first few that get offered. In about 5 years, we might finally get back to a "buyers market" again. But for now and the next 3+ years, way more demand than supply across the board, thus all that can produce something, will do well.
Rivian only has around 70,000 reservations. They're not capable of producing that many by the end of 2023. Thus, even if it worked, it's another one that's not available to someone wanting an EV truck.
The Silverado will be the same story. Won't be released until late next year.
So, demand for an EV truck is going to be pretty strong for AT LEAST the next year. Even if Toyota and others announce new EV trucks, those too are going to be at least two years out.
Ford has a golden opportunity to really capture the market with what is effectively already an outdated truck being a body on frame design, knowing that in a couple of years, an all new one will be released. But, being that they're using the same chassis and swapping out ICE parts for EV parts, they're cost to produce them is likely quite low, relatively speaking. Despite that, they're still able to charge over $70,000 on nearly all of the orders.
Ford has to love being Ford right now. They're going to make a fortune on these things. Customers that don't get stuck with a "no sell in 1 year" clause will likely benefit as well. "guessing" at least a 20% premium. After the 10% customers will have paid in sales tax and license fees (give or take), still will be able to make a tidy profit on them for a while.
$80,000 Rivan's are selling at $125,000 plus. They are more niche and more limited supply, so I don't think Fords will these that kind of margin. But, 20% will likely be the norm. May 30% for the first few that get offered. In about 5 years, we might finally get back to a "buyers market" again. But for now and the next 3+ years, way more demand than supply across the board, thus all that can produce something, will do well.
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yeah considering that Teslas are selling used for more than MSRP, and Mach-E and EV6 are both selling with substantial ADM off the lot (a local Kia dealer is selling $40K EV6s with an extra $5K ADM literally the day after they come in, and that's not including their warranty and charger markups [the EV6 doesn't come with a charger from the factory]), things are crazy right now.
I bet that some people will flip their Lightning. They technically can't take the IRS tax credit if bought for resale, and the second buyer can't either, so that money is just "lost", but I bet a lot of flippers will cheat and not care, betting on not being caught.
Some people will buy it and realize it's not for them after all, and sell it for that reason relatively quickly, even if they didn't intend to resell when they buy it. But that's not in the scope of the OP's question as I read it.
I bet that some people will flip their Lightning. They technically can't take the IRS tax credit if bought for resale, and the second buyer can't either, so that money is just "lost", but I bet a lot of flippers will cheat and not care, betting on not being caught.
Some people will buy it and realize it's not for them after all, and sell it for that reason relatively quickly, even if they didn't intend to resell when they buy it. But that's not in the scope of the OP's question as I read it.
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From all the articles released over the past few months including this week, all new Lightning owners will have to sign an agreement to not resell their trucks for at least one year. If they do sell, which has happened in the past with Ford GT's and others vehicles, Ford has taken customers to court over ignoring the agreements.
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Yup! Read no resells allowed for a year by contractual agreements.
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This requirement would be imposed at the dealer not by Ford corporate. I am sure many dealers will not bother trying to add that to your contract. I think the enforcement is sketchy at best.
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So I've been informed my build date is mid June. Lariat, with extended battery but without max tow package (not available when I ordered), $79K. Dealer isn't raising the MSRP.
I also have a Rivian R1T with max pack on order, due first half of 2023, $91K with camp kitchen. But the Rivian has a short bed and only a couple of outlets on the sides of the bed, both of which I'm afraid that I'll regret. What I want is an EV truck good for off road for rugged camping, fishing, hauling wood, kayak, tandem bike, towing a light weight camper, etc. Will the Lariat really fit that? I kind of feel that what I may really want is a Silverado Trail Boss but that probably won't be out until late 2024. But I don't want to wait that long to get off ICE.
What's your advice? Should I take the Lightning LariatWhat is your guess on what I could get for a Lightning Lariat without the max tow package in a couple of years with, say, 24,000 miles on it if I can keep it in good condition?
I also have a Rivian R1T with max pack on order, due first half of 2023, $91K with camp kitchen. But the Rivian has a short bed and only a couple of outlets on the sides of the bed, both of which I'm afraid that I'll regret. What I want is an EV truck good for off road for rugged camping, fishing, hauling wood, kayak, tandem bike, towing a light weight camper, etc. Will the Lariat really fit that? I kind of feel that what I may really want is a Silverado Trail Boss but that probably won't be out until late 2024. But I don't want to wait that long to get off ICE.
What's your advice? Should I take the Lightning LariatWhat is your guess on what I could get for a Lightning Lariat without the max tow package in a couple of years with, say, 24,000 miles on it if I can keep it in good condition?
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I'm pretty sure the Rivian fits those needs, other than having a short bed. I've seen plenty of videos with a Rivian going up and down major trails. I don't know if the Lightning will be able to do the same but I haven't seen the videos yet. Though if the trails you are going to get to all those things you mentioned is something that the Fx4 package could do, then the Lightning can do all that and power everything you have better than the Rivian. Actually check the video below. Out of Spec guy met with someone that got his Rivian and an F-150 powerboost at the same time (with a Lightning reservation) and is wondering which to keep. He goes into some good examples of his use and experience so far and it sounds just like your situation.
Silverado Trail Boss EV? or do you mean gas powered? I know they've had transmission issues and one of my coworkers commented that his neighbor finally got sick of it and traded his back in for a RAM. But a trail boss version of the silverado EV? I do think Chevy is going to have to make it more offroadable than the F-150 to separate themselves a bit. But it is just a prototype, no idea what it'll do.
Right now, imo, the Rivian is the top Offroading EV. That's only because the Hummer EV is too heavy, Rivian is faster and more efficient.
The big dilemma for many. Both great EV trucks, but also both very different. Unfortunately, other than being "EV trucks", they otherwise fit into two entirely different categories.
I have several must haves on my list. I agree, the Silverado appears will be the first to satisfy all of those.
1. Capable of powering my home (acting as a full generator for home or campsite). Ford is, Rivian is not.
2. Interior storage and rear seat space. Ford has a ton, Rivian is limited. The gear tunnel is cool, but I think I would have preferred if Rivian would have used that space to increase BOTH the bed size and rear seat space.
3. Autopilot type features. Both have them, but Rivian's still seem to be a ways off.
4. Air suspension. Ford missed the boat on this one.
5. Built-in air compressor. Again, a feature that could be useful for worksites that Ford left off the menu.
Not must haves, but, Ford's bed site and frunk are both far more appealing. The spare tire location is far more appealing in the Ford. Ford has far more usable buttons on the steering wheel so I don't have to go searching the screen for nearly as much. I love the "workspace" console in the Ford. Rivian's center console is quite small and it has no glove box. I love the power tailgate. Rivian was supposed to have it, but they cheaped out and didn't include it. On the other hand, I love the Rivian auto tonneau cover being included.
I prefer the utility of the Ford, but for a personal vehicle, prefer the styling and off-road oriented appeal of the Rivian.
The Ford is at least all wheel drive. To make it an off-roader, likely would have to add a suspension kit to raise it up. Had they done air suspension, could have had the best of both worlds as Rivian and the Chevy will offer. If Ford would have offered a Raptor version, then I wouldn't be having this conversation. I'm sure it will come some day.
I haven't been able to decide. So, basically looks like I'll just buy both and see which one I like most after 30 days and sell the other one. I simply can't decide which of my must haves I can live without. I want something now, so not waiting for the Chevy, although I have one on order and will probably get that and sell whichever of the first two I kept at that time.
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Thanks for your thoughtful analysis. Glad to know that someone else thinks the Silverado may be the best of the three.
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I think early resellers might get a 30% markup on them given what I’ve seen happening with the Rivian resellers. But it really comes down to ford’s ramp. If they can manufacture a lot of them, then supply should dictate that those resale prices come down as I figure a significant percentage of the people wanting one already have a reservation. Mine is likely not until Fall at the earliest, I’d be tempted by any resale in the 10% premium range to get it sooner. But my guess is that’s not going to be enough to get it significantly sooner than my expected build date anyway.
Can someone honestly, objectively, and with data show me why they think there will be little to no resell value? Im being 100% genuine when I ask too.
Reasons why you could make 20-40k on flipping it:
Ford sold out for at least a year w demand passing 200,000 reservations.
Several rivians have sold w a price of $135k or more (<$70m purchase price and not full size)
Gas and Diesel climbing higher every day.
Competitors openly stating they wont be to market for 2 years with comparably sized trucks.
Any other EV on a LONG wait (Model Y LR 1 year)
Reasons why you could make 20-40k on flipping it:
Ford sold out for at least a year w demand passing 200,000 reservations.
Several rivians have sold w a price of $135k or more (<$70m purchase price and not full size)
Gas and Diesel climbing higher every day.
Competitors openly stating they wont be to market for 2 years with comparably sized trucks.
Any other EV on a LONG wait (Model Y LR 1 year)
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Nope its optional and my dealer is marking mine up 10k iam still getting it and if iam one but unhappy its on the auction block quick
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