Welcome @EVolution. That’s a nice start at an analysis. Here are a few more things to consider.Hi all - like many of you, I've been obsessing (too light of a word?) over the F-150 Lightning as of late and appreciate all the information that everyone on this forum has provided over the last several weeks.
I was definitely not the first to reserve but I did make my reservation relatively soon after the announcement. I was able to reserve on 5/20 with a reservation of 10857XXX. After reading the thread on 1st wave invitations I reached out to my local dealer and was informed that I was 16 out of 84 and that they only had 1 truck on the 1st wave invite. His comment was that he couldn't imagine not getting a truck this year. He obviously doesn't follow this site!
As much as I would like to think that I have a good chance to convert my reservation to an order (looking at the Lariat 511A package) based on the relatively low number within my dealership, I just don't think the odds are good for me.
Let me explain my assumptions:
There are 3,000+ dealers in the US (does not include the estimate 400+ dealerships in Canada). From the sleuthing we've all provided to this forum, it seems that each dealership was able to have at least one 1st wave invitation for VIP's and in a couple cases there were reports that some dealerships had a couple more opportunities in that first wave. Let's assume that of the ~3500 dealerships, every dealer got 1 reserved (this assumes that popularity and reservations were evenly spread out across the country but demand is so high I think it's a reasonable assumption).
We've all seen the reports that Ford plans to double production from ~80,000 units to ~150,000 units. From everything that I can find, this is 2023 production number and not 2022 production. Before this announcement came out, I was able to find production numbers from 3rd party market assessment firms that predicted about 20,000 units produced by end of 2022. This production starts slow in February with a couple hundred units and ultimately ramping up to a couple thousand units in the second half of the year. That run rate eventually improves in 2023 to a few thousand units a month and brought the total 2023 builds to just under 80,000 units. So this is in line with public reporting. However, the data I've seen was before Ford's announcement of doubling production. Like any new production build, everything needs to ramp up so it will not be an immediate doubling of production. I believe the steep ramp up will continue into 2023 but the additional builds in 2022 will only be maybe 10-20% on what was already in the plan. So this would mean a total production of 22,000-25,000 units in 2022. I expect that ramp up to continue into 2023 eventually getting to the 10,000+/month build rate to reach the reported 150,000 output number.
All this is to say that, this group (and I include myself in this group) is a very motivated buyer but odds are, 2023 is more realistic to many. Even if each dealership is able to convert 3-5 of the reservation list on average, unless you're in the top 5, we're not getting a truck this year. This is more of a coping method for me as I was definitely very excited and hoping to purchase this year but I no longer see that as a possibility.
Let's continue to hold out hope that Ford squeaks out additional capacity and we are prioritized in the buying process.
Ford has promised to double production. IIRC all official statements including those by Jim Farley target reaching an annual rate of 160,000 by the end of 2023. That means that rate may not realistically apply until the 2024 production.
Now, let’s assume a MY2022 production of 15,000-21,000 trucks. If we also assume an even distribution across all ~3,000 EV-certified dealers, that’s about 5-7 trucks per dealership. That makes 2022 trucks unlikely for those with a reservation rank/priority at their dealer of 8 or more.
Of course there is some indication dealerships with more reservations may receive more trucks than those with fewer reservations.
Fortunate for some and unfortunate for others is the rumor that 2022 allocations may be larger for dealers in CARB/ZEV states. That would mean higher allocations to dealers in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state and Washington D.C. and lower allocations to the rest.
We also don’t know how much of the order priority will be dealers-based and how much will be your place in line relative to all other buyers.
No matter how you slice it, though, for someone who is 16 out of 84 at their dealership, the odds of a 2022 Lightning don’t look great.