. That’s a nice start at an analysis. Here are a few more things to consider.
Ford has promised to double production. IIRC all official statements including those by Jim Farley target reaching an annual rate of 160,000 by the end of 2023. That means that rate may not realistically apply until the 2024 production.
Now, let’s assume a MY2022 production of 15,000-21,000 trucks. If we also assume an even distribution across all ~3,000 EV-certified dealers, that’s about 5-7 trucks per dealership. That makes 2022 trucks unlikely for those with a reservation rank/priority at their dealer of 8 or more.
Of course there is some indication dealerships with more reservations may receive more trucks than those with fewer reservations.
Fortunate for some and unfortunate for others is the rumor that 2022 allocations may be larger for dealers in CARB/ZEV states. That would mean higher allocations to dealers in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state and Washington D.C. and lower allocations to the rest.
We also don’t know how much of the order priority will be dealers-based and how much will be your place in line relative to all other buyers.
No matter how you slice it, though, for someone who is 16 out of 84 at their dealership, the odds of a 2022 Lightning don’t look great.