[Busted]

Looks like the irrational exuberance for EVs, and cars in general is fast coming to a crash. Looking at autotrader.com about 10% of new 2023 ER Lariats around the country are advertised for about $2,000 under MSRP.

Ted Russell Ford, Knoxville, Tn - $1995 below MSRP.
Avis Ford, MI - $1686 below MSRP.
Milliken Ford, MI - $1655 below MSRP.
Alpine Ford, CO - $2000 below MSRP.

Of course dealers are charging over MSRP.

Here is Courtesy Ford, OR, selling for $10,000 over MSRP.

I think this used 2022 with 9,000 miles at $76,000 is the least expensive ER Lariat in the country...until next month when I am predicting even low mileage ones will be on dealers lots for probably 2022 MSRPs. Or less.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Interesting that those don’t indicate ER or SR

 

[KElkhorn]

8th digit in vin, L for SR, V for ER

The first four are ER, last one is SR

 

[Trentb]

Thanks for the tip on how to distinguish between a SR and ER based on the vin.

👍

 

[Busted]

Come on @ChasingCoral. You have to have trust - I wrote "new 2023 ER Lariats...for about $2,000 under MSRP. ." But! You can verify too. I knew you wouldn't be able to resist challenging that simple headline so I put the links in just for you to verify of my data. Links, btw, are the blue part of posts that usually go to source of info (or a link to virus). Click one sometime. And I know you know the VIN info since you posted it.

Granted, I did add paragraph with the SR Lariat that is over MSRP to emphasize "shop around folks," So I stand by all paragraphs as written.

What KElkhorn said, who apparently did click the links.

But you could prove my 10% estimate wrong if you want to challenge the 10%. It seemed like two or three on each page of 25 in the $85k to $88k range were under MSRP, so I thought, 10%.

I hope you read this with an appreciation for the hilarious humor that is in it - cold war references, link instructions, TLRD references, and more!

 

[Busted]

8th digit in vin, L for SR, V for ER

The first four are ER, last one is SR

I have told autotrader that, but still they still list all Lightnings as standard range -- can't sort for extended range. So the only way to tell the difference is to open the ad and scroll down to the VIN, which is on every ad. That is a lot of clicking, but you can find deals.

No getting around it for used, but for new ones, if you know the MSRP of various packages, you can look at the MSRP verses price.

 

[joeclark38]

Looks like the irrational exuberance for EVs, and cars in general is fast coming to a crash. Looking at autotrader.com about 10% of new 2023 ER Lariats around the country are advertised for about $2,000 under MSRP.

Ted Russell Ford, Knoxville, Tn - $1995 below MSRP.
Avis Ford, MI - $1686 below MSRP.
Milliken Ford, MI - $1655 below MSRP.
Alpine Ford, CO - $2000 below MSRP.

Of course dealers are charging over MSRP.

Here is Courtesy Ford, OR, selling for $10,000 over MSRP.

I think this used 2022 with 9,000 miles at $76,000 is the least expensive ER Lariat in the country...until next month when I am predicting even low mileage ones will be on dealers lots for probably 2022 MSRPs. Or less.

Yay for supply and demand! Demand is cooling, and supply is increasing. For folks like me still waiting, this is excellent news!

 

[ChasingCoral]

Come on @ChasingCoral. You have to have trust - I wrote "new 2023 ER Lariats...for about $2,000 under MSRP. ." But! You can verify too. I knew you wouldn't be able to resist challenging that simple headline so I put the links in just for you to verify of my data. Links, btw, are the blue part of posts that usually go to source of info (or a link to virus). Click one sometime. And I know you know the VIN info since you posted it.

Granted, I did add paragraph with the SR Lariat that is over MSRP to emphasize "shop around folks," So I stand by all paragraphs as written.

What KElkhorn said, who apparently did click the links.

But you could prove my 10% estimate wrong if you want to challenge the 10%. It seemed like two or three on each page of 25 in the $85k to $88k range were under MSRP, so I thought, 10%.

I hope you read this with an appreciation for the hilarious humor that is in it - cold war references, link instructions, TLRD references, and more!

i wasn’t debating what you posted, just commenting on the Autotrader posts. ER vs SR is a very important distinction and I’m surprised there don’t include it.

 

[Berm]

I went to the dealership website for two of your links (Michigan ones) and the trucks are not listed. Doesn't seem useful to know that they are being listed at under MSRP on autotrader.com if they aren't even listed on dealer websites. I wouldn't take that as a sign the market is fast coming to a crash.

 

[quikag]

I went to the dealership website for two of your links (Michigan ones) and the trucks are not listed. Doesn't seem useful to know that they are being listed at under MSRP on autotrader.com if they aren't even listed on dealer websites. I wouldn't take that as a sign the market is fast coming to a crash.

Nobody knows unless you specifically call the dealership as automaker and dealer bots throw those adds up with some wonky algorithms sometimes and the unit isn't even available or the price isn't accurate.

All that said, likelihood of deals being available are likely very true with some digging around. Supply is going up and demand is going to be softer with the $7,500 credit being adios for all the Lariat ER's and Platinums that are over $80k.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I think a lot of what we are seeing now is the impact of all the mannequins coming to market. Most are SR Lariats, which isn't one of the more popular combinations.

 

[joeclark38]

I think a lot of what we are seeing now is the impact of all the mannequins coming to market. Most are SR Lariats, which isn't one of the more popular combinations.

I thought the mannequins were able to be sold as of December, in which case I imagine those would've been bought and paid for well before then and off lots by now. And not every dealer got a mannequin, right? So we're only talking a couple thousand units at most, which again, I would think are gone by now.

 

[Safari]

I went through the window stickers to see what you actually get:

https://www.windowsticker.forddirect.com/windowsticker.pdf?vin=1FT6W1EVXPWG06030

https://www.windowsticker.forddirect.com/windowsticker.pdf?vin=1FTVW1EV3PWG01876

https://www.windowsticker.forddirect.com/windowsticker.pdf?vin=1FTVW1EV8PWG03722

https://www.windowsticker.forddirect.com/windowsticker.pdf?vin=1FTVW1EV9PWG06404

The first one listed is actually at MSRP, so no discount there
The other 3 are all below MSRP, but they all have the same highly customized special order:

They all have security pack removal
Smart Hitch removal
Steering wheel heating removal

My guess is that this is inventory that got hit by the chip shortage and the dealer needs to offer some small discount to sell a car with missing features

 

[Txxthie]

Some dealers are getting the message and some aren’t. They must lower prices to move product. Some are even sending new vehicles to auction to maintain their prices. Lots of work trucks and vans are coming to auction with little interest in bidding. The lagging effects of the Fed QT is showing up now in the economy. Expect 2023 to be the year of job cuts. Many publicly traded companies will have to cut jobs to maintain or increase their stock price. Unemployment rate has to go up, for the Fed to stop QT.
December, Ford Motor Company average transaction pricing rose by 3.2 percent, month-over-month, from $55,413 to $57,170. Record high transaction prices is causing an affordability crisis. This is not going to turn out well for those overextending themselves financially to buy expensive vehicles.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I thought the mannequins were able to be sold as of December, in which case I imagine those would've been bought and paid for well before then and off lots by now. And not every dealer got a mannequin, right? So we're only talking a couple thousand units at most, which again, I would think are gone by now.

Every EV certified dealer received at least one mannequin. Yes, December was the hot month for those but I think that sudden glut plus the impact of the IRA on tax credits combined to have this impact.

Personally, I'm glad to see the market normalize. We'll see if it lasts.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Ahhh. End of model year clearance runs. Whatever is left on the shelves going into vehicles for dealer stock.

 

[HellBoy]

Looks like the irrational exuberance for EVs, and cars in general is fast coming to a crash. Looking at autotrader.com about 10% of new 2023 ER Lariats around the country are advertised for about $2,000 under MSRP. Ted Russell Ford, Knoxville, Tn - $1995 below MSRP. Avis Ford, MI - $1686 below MSRP. Milliken Ford, MI - $1655 below MSRP. Alpine Ford, CO - $2000 below MSRP. Of course dealers are charging over MSRP. Here is Courtesy Ford, OR, selling for $10,000 over MSRP. I think this used 2022 with 9,000 miles at $76,000 is the least expensive ER Lariat in the country...until next month when I am predicting even low mileage ones will be on dealers lots for probably 2022 MSRPs. Or less.

I double check your ‘discount’ comments directly on the dealers’ website… these are being sold at MSRP or a tad below MSRP - you can see this by accessing the window sticker for each one of these trucks…the ones below MSRP just reflect removed features.

there are no discounts…you fell for the old trick…

 

[BigDutchBaller]

Talked to a dealer in TN, they wanted 10k over for their demo SR. No thanks

 

[terik2005]

My dealer has 2 identical er lariat mine was sold at MSRP to me as a walkin and in the showroom the other had this sticker. MSRP was 80k. How I negotiated down to sticker I couldn't tell you I just kept saying no. No. No and no and I try to walk out two times and said no a couple of more times and they did it.

 

[Simsonic]

This is awesome news. Prices were too high and most of the inflationary pressure was corporate greed.