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Discussion Starter · #41 ·
So, my dealer is frustrating with their information. They told me a week ago they got 12 orders in the first wave, which was way higher than anything I have seen here, and then yesterday, said they only got one. I am 24th on their list even though I ordered the 19th at 8 am. The salesman for my truck had ZERO information and kept talking about Maverick orders. The woman who is in charge of ordering for the dealer is the only one who apparently know anything, and she is never available and a will always ‘call me back’ but never does. They say they wont charge above MSRP, but they have been so slap dick with everything so far. I just want to set my expectations and not spend three days every two weeks consumed with this. i contacted Ford thru the sales chat online, and they pushed me back to the dealer.
I know I am being impatient, but I’m about to spend 80K on a truck, it seems there would be a better way to get honest info. Or just find out that I’m not gonna see shit till 23
 

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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Now that I placed the order for the Lightning, my wife got envy and wants to get the Mach--E
Mach-E owners , are you happy with yours?
Loving mine. Driving back from FL to MD now. Great car!
 

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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is there any printed information about how many Pros were being built for 2022. Like the total number between fleet and consumer
No official numbers have been released and I doubt we’ll know for sure until the end of the year.
 

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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Dang, no email for me yet. I guess they are still just going out for those who reserved the day of the reveal, I reserved the next morning #10850920. Wanted a Pro Model. On the fence for a XLT.
Be sure to check your reservation on your Ford account page. My reservation indicated I could order before I received the email. Also, there was a brief period I could not access my reservation (Sorry, Cannot Access Reservation message). Once I could again access my reservation I was able to order. Once I placed the order I checked my email and saw the invitation.
 

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Be sure to check your reservation on your Ford account page. My reservation indicated I could order before I received the email. Also, there was a brief period I could not access my reservation (Sorry, Cannot Access Reservation message). Once I could again access my reservation I was able to order. Once I placed the order I checked my email and saw the invitation.

appreciate all the great info you've been posting
 

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Caved and changed my selection from “Extended Reservation” to an XLT. FOMO won.
Let's talk about the $7500 federal tax credit. The way I see it from forecasting sites is that if you don't get a 2022 Lightning then there's no way you'll get the tax credit because ford is set to pass 200k EVs sold sometime in 3rd Q 2022? Has anyone thought of this?
 

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Caved and changed my selection from “Extended Reservation” to an XLT. FOMO won.
I know money doesn't grow on trees, but I have a feeling you'll be very happy with this decision long term.
 

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2021 Mach-E Premium SR AWD, Lightning XLT ordered
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I know money doesn't grow on trees, but I have a feeling you'll be very happy with this decision long term.
Agreed. The painted bumpers and running boards were going to be a hassle to get done anyway. Also, I was not thrilled with having to resort to the stick-on keypad vs the factory installed one. I’ve got it on my current F-150 and love it. Plus hitting 3/4 (after your code) opens the frunk.
 

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Also, rumor has it, You WILL NOT be able to resell your Lightning for 1 year.
I've heard that too, but I don't think it will happen. Ford has already demonstrated that they don't what dealers screwing people on this vehicle. While they can't force dealers to do much, they can strongly encourage. This kind of condition would knock out half of their sales.

Ford is a big company and will be capable of producing a bunch of these things very quickly. Unlike Rivian, which will likely take well over two years to get through 40-50,000 orders. If not longer. Thus, supply is going to meet demand much sooner on these things. They don't want to turn away a bunch of customers from Ford in general.

Many people may be forced to sell for financial reasons. Or simply realize, an EV doesn't work for them, but wanted to try it. To say they're stuck with it for a minimum of one year would deter a bunch. I would be one of them. I leaning against buying it, but may still order one anyway. Haven't decided yet.

I will say, if you're going to get the XLT and want the extended range battery, almost silly to not upgrade and get the Lariat. For the XLT, they force the $10,000 option package on you, plus the $10,000 battery option. For the Lariat, it's $10,000, just for the battery, but you get A LOT more included at no cost. If you separately ordered the items it includes, you'd only save about $7,000 as it throws in another $3,000 worth of stuff. So, if you're going to spend $74K, kind of silly to not bump it up $3-4K and get all that comes with the Lariat. Platinum at another $12-13K, can't justify for fancier leather and a few other luxury items. Lariat offers quite a bit for a good chunk less. I'm still struggling with spending $80K+ out the door for a truck that will be outdated in 2 years when Ford releases their purpose built EV truck.
 

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If someone could tell me I'd be able to get the $7500 federal tax credit on my order, I'd order the XLT truck right now. I wonder what happens if I order now and when it's delivered decide I don't want it b/c it doesn't qualify for the tax credit? No doubt there are thousands in line that would buy it, but would that be allowed? Would it be legal for he dealer to pay me back my $600 so they could stick it on the lot?
 

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2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning reserved
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If someone could tell me I'd be able to get the $7500 federal tax credit on my order, I'd order the XLT truck right now. I wonder what happens if I order now and when it's delivered decide I don't want it b/c it doesn't qualify for the tax credit? No doubt there are thousands in line that would buy it, but would that be allowed? Would it be legal for he dealer to pay me back my $600 so they could stick it on the lot?
TL;DR: You should be fine in 2022 and first quarter of 2023.

You can keep track of the sales here: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service
Note that they haven't updated for 2021 Q4 yet.

As of the end of 2021 Q3, Ford had used up 149,595 of their 200,000 credits.
US sales of the Mustang Mach E in 2021 Q4 were 8,285 (Oct: 2,848, Nov: 3,088, Dec: 2,349).
That means Ford has sold approximately 157,880 EVs by the end of 2021.

Mach E production in 2021 was 63,683 with 27,140 of those sold in the US (more than half went to UK and EU).

If we assume the same level of sales of the Mach E in the US, expect about 6,800 sales per quarter in 2022.
If we assume 20,000 Lightnings in 2022, all in the last 2 quarters, that is a maximum of 10,000 in Q3 and 10,000 in Q4. However, it is likely that Lightning sales will be higher in Q4 than Q3.

This suggests that in 2022, Ford will reach
~164,700 by the end of Q1
~171,500 by the end of Q2
~188,300 by the end of Q3
~205,100 by the end of Q4
Sales of eTransits may speed this up. So would selling more of the Mach Es in the US.

In essence, Ford MAY reach the 200,000 at the end of 2022.

According to Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars
"The credit begins to phase out for vehicles at the beginning of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer has sold 200,000 eligible plug-in electric vehicles (i.e., plug-in hybrids and EVs) in the United States as counted from January 1, 2010. IRS will announce when a manufacturer exceeds this production figure and will announce the subsequent phase out schedule (Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales)."

So, if Ford surpasses the 200,000 sales in Q4 of 2022, phaseout begins Q2 of 2023. At that point the incentive on each of their vehicles is cut in half. It continues at that 50% level for the next two quarters. After that, the incentive is halved again, to 25% of its original amount, for the next two quarters. When that period expires, the credits disappear entirely.

Following this calculation, Ford BEVs should be eligible for Federal tax credits of
$7500 through 2023 Q1
$3750 2023 Q2 - Q3
$1875 2023 Q4 - 2024 Q1

This could move up a bit sooner, though, if Ford delivers more Mustang Mach Es to US customers in 2022 than they did in 2023. If ALL of them are sold in the US, that would mean:
~174,000 by the end of Q1
~190,000 by the end of Q2
~206,000 by the end of Q3

Following this calculation, Ford BEVs should be eligible for Federal tax credits of
$7500 through 2022 Q4
$3750 2023 Q1 - Q2
$1875 2023 Q3 - Q4

However, Ford has to sell enough Mustang Mach Es in the UK and EU to avoid major tariffs due to the EU fleet CO2 limits. I'm not sure how many units that is but these EU regulations make this scenario quite unlikely.
 

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Discussion Starter · #57 ·
TL;DR: You should be fine in 2022 and first quarter of 2023.

You can keep track of the sales here: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service
Note that they haven't updated for 2021 Q4 yet.

. . .

Following this calculation, Ford BEVs should be eligible for Federal tax credits of
$7500 through 2022 Q4
$3750 2023 Q1 - Q2
$1875 2023 Q3 - Q4

However, Ford has to sell enough Mustang Mach Es in the UK and EU to avoid major tariffs due to the EU fleet CO2 limits. I'm not sure how many units that is but these EU regulations make this scenario quite unlikely.
you deserve a black belt for this
 

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I've heard that too, but I don't think it will happen. Ford has already demonstrated that they don't what dealers screwing people on this vehicle. While they can't force dealers to do much, they can strongly encourage. This kind of condition would knock out half of their sales.

Ford is a big company and will be capable of producing a bunch of these things very quickly. Unlike Rivian, which will likely take well over two years to get through 40-50,000 orders. If not longer. Thus, supply is going to meet demand much sooner on these things. They don't want to turn away a bunch of customers from Ford in general.

Many people may be forced to sell for financial reasons. Or simply realize, an EV doesn't work for them, but wanted to try it. To say they're stuck with it for a minimum of one year would deter a bunch. I would be one of them. I leaning against buying it, but may still order one anyway. Haven't decided yet.

I will say, if you're going to get the XLT and want the extended range battery, almost silly to not upgrade and get the Lariat. For the XLT, they force the $10,000 option package on you, plus the $10,000 battery option. For the Lariat, it's $10,000, just for the battery, but you get A LOT more included at no cost. If you separately ordered the items it includes, you'd only save about $7,000 as it throws in another $3,000 worth of stuff. So, if you're going to spend $74K, kind of silly to not bump it up $3-4K and get all that comes with the Lariat. Platinum at another $12-13K, can't justify for fancier leather and a few other luxury items. Lariat offers quite a bit for a good chunk less. I'm still struggling with spending $80K+ out the door for a truck that will be outdated in 2 years when Ford releases their purpose built EV truck.
I turn my trucks every 3 years. Ya know... Bumper to Bumper warranty
 
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