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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Estimates of MY2022 production numbers are all over the place but center around 20,000 units during only 1/2 year of production. Since the Mustang Mach E production was around 60,000 in an overly-long first year (September 2020-December 2021), it sounds like the line rate of the two will be somewhat comparable. That means we can learn some things about when Lightnings will be scheduled, built, and delivered from the Mach E numbers.

It took the Cuautitlan plant from September 2020 - March 2021 to produce the first 20,000 vehicles.
Rectangle Font Parallel Pattern Logo

Note that Job#1 was September 28, so that September number was less than a week of production.

As of March 2021, "Ford had over 2,100 EV certified dealers across the country—about 70% of its total 3,010 locations". Assuming one FCTP (Ford Courtesy Transportation Program) vehicles per EV-certified dealership, plus early test vehicles, trucks going to Ford executives, etc., it will probably take over 2 months of production before Ford starts to fill customer orders.

The latest official information on the Lightning was from early February:
Per FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), the updated timetable information has been released for the 2022 F-150 BEV Lightning
  • 01/05/2022 - 2022MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 01/27/2022 - 2022MY Scheduling Begins
  • 03/14/2022 - 2022MY Job #1 Date
However, an inside rumor has it that initial Lightnings may start production March 1st.

With the Mustang Mach E, the earliest customer scheduling was about six weeks before production start, production took about a week to 10 days.

Delivery time? It depends how far you are but certainly should be faster than delivery of Mustang Mach Es from Mexico. Perhaps 3 weeks? That would mean about 4 weeks from production start to delivery, on average.

So here are my initial and most optimistic guesses:
FCTP production starts mid-March
Customer truck scheduling starts around April 1st (prepare to be fooled that day)
Customer truck production starts mid-May
Customer truck deliveries start around Mid-June

Reality may place 1st FCTP delivery in late April and 1st customer delivery around July 1st.
That matches the latest Ford insider rumor I've heard as well -- first customer deliveries in early July.
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
The first vehicles to be scheduled and delivered will not necessarily be Wave 1.

We don't know if they will do initial customer runs by trim or mix the trims to optimize the line -- my guess is Ford will start out optimizing the line.

Ford also may time their scheduling to efficiently fill trucks or train cars for delivery. Such coordination based on delivery will likely depend on non-Lightning Rouge plant production schedules as I expect them to be mixed in with other vehicles from the plant.
 

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PRO IcedBlueSilver - TowTech, MaxTow, 9.6kwProPower: RECEIVED Aug23rd
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if Ford wants to expedite first-order Demos to dealers, it would also make sense to provide the dealer's first 'customer order', as well, which may be why so many wave 1 invites were single orders for most every dealer... I can't imagine that Ford would want Platinums as 'demo' units, but, who knows... do customers want to test drive a cloth seated XLT, a vinyl seated PRO, or a leather-appointed Lariat? I can't imagine they'd upgrade to Extended Range batteries for demos, either...but, who knows. It does make sense that they would want to capitalize both on demos to dealers and Lightnings in the hands of owners at the same time? - if a delivery truck is going to an EV Certified dealer, why not. That would 40% of the 15,000 orders for 2022 models.
 

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Estimates of MY2022 production numbers are all over the place but center around 20,000 units during only 1/2 year of production. Since the Mustang Mach E production was around 60,000 in an overly-long first year (September 2020-December 2021), it sounds like the line rate of the two will be somewhat comparable. That means we can learn some things about when Lightnings will be scheduled, built, and delivered from the Mach E numbers.

It took the Cuautitlan plant from September 2020 - March 2021 to produce the first 20,000 vehicles.
View attachment 1458
Note that Job#1 was September 28, so that September number was less than a week of production.

As of March 2021, "Ford had over 2,100 EV certified dealers across the country—about 70% of its total 3,010 locations". Assuming one FCTP (Ford Courtesy Transportation Program) vehicles per EV-certified dealership, plus early test vehicles, trucks going to Ford executives, etc., it will probably take over 2 months of production before Ford starts to fill customer orders.

The latest official information on the Lightning was from early February:
Per FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), the updated timetable information has been released for the 2022 F-150 BEV Lightning
  • 01/05/2022 - 2022MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 01/27/2022 - 2022MY Scheduling Begins
  • 03/14/2022 - 2022MY Job #1 Date
However, an inside rumor has it that initial Lightnings may start production March 1st.

With the Mustang Mach E, the earliest customer scheduling was about six weeks before production start, production took about a week to 10 days.

Delivery time? It depends how far you are but certainly should be faster than delivery of Mustang Mach Es from Mexico. Perhaps 3 weeks? That would mean about 4 weeks from production start to delivery, on average.

So here are my initial and most optimistic guesses:
FCTP production starts mid-March
Customer truck production starts mid-May
Customer truck scheduling starts around April 1st (prepare to be fooled that day)
Customer truck deliveries start around Mid-June

Reality may place 1st FCTP delivery in late April and 1st customer delivery around July 1st.
That matches the latest Ford insider rumor I've heard as well -- first customer deliveries in early July.
In other words, be patient! :)
 

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if Ford wants to expedite first-order Demos to dealers, it would also make sense to provide the dealer's first 'customer order', as well, which may be why so many wave 1 invites were single orders for most every dealer... I can't imagine that Ford would want Platinums as 'demo' units, but, who knows... do customers want to test drive a cloth seated XLT, a vinyl seated PRO, or a leather-appointed Lariat? I can't imagine they'd upgrade to Extended Range batteries for demos, either...but, who knows. It does make sense that they would want to capitalize both on demos to dealers and Lightnings in the hands of owners at the same time? - if a delivery truck is going to an EV Certified dealer, why not. That would 40% of the 15,000 orders for 2022 models.
This is spot on to what I am thinking, purely due to some information I received from my dealer. I am a wave 1 order. I know I was the only wave 1 order they got. I do not know how many others were able to order is subsequent waves. However, I was just told the other day that I my truck will be the only customer delivered lightning they get for 2022....but they're not a tiny dealer so I would imagine they may have had at least another 5-10 allocations for 2022. They also said that Ford ordered them their demo unit (they weren't able to order it and spec it - Ford choose that for them). If what they said is true, my dealer might be looking at this situation where my wave 1 order and their demo unit are produced around the same time to be shipped at the same time.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Don't get too excited about rumors that Wave 1s will arrive first. Ford worked hard to have First Edition Mustang Mach Es delivered first and those and some other early reservation holders were among the first to get their cars. The "First Edition" moniker led to lots of speculation that First Edition meant first delivery. Ford prioritized customer deliveries over FCTP (Ford Courtesy Transportation Program).

The result was many of these cars arrived at dealerships before the FCTPs. People were driving their own cars before having a chance to drive demos. Some early software problems started cropping up and Ford had to scramble to find these and fix customer cars.

There have been a lot of signals that Ford learned from that experience and has changed things for the Lightning launch. The biggest has been the repeated assurance that customers will be able to drive demo vehicles before their orders start to arrive.

Ford also allowed dealers to spec out their Mustang Mach Es under FCTP. For the Lightnings, Ford told dealers what they would get in the FCTP deliveries.

Shipping is also very different with Lightning than the Mustang Mach E. E-ponies are the only thing coming out of the Cuautitlan plant and all shipping was by train to Kansas City. An entire train would have Mach Es going to KC, then they were split up to go to destination terminals. That meant Ford had to fill entire train cars destined for KC before any shipped. Cars were unloaded in KC and loaded on train cars to their destination. Every train car to a central terminal like Wilmington, DE (where my car went) was full of Mach Es and all train cars were full.

In contrast there are lots of trucks and trains leaving Dearborn full of F-150s every day. Ford doesn't have to fill auto carriers with Lightning, just F-150s. I expect Lightnings will be intermixed with other F-150s coming out of Rouge. Ford has said dealers will get their FCTP first. I'll bet Ford will optimize Lightning lines to get the trucks made the fastest so all dealer demos go out as quickly as they can. I expect the Lightnings to be intermixed with ICE F-150s to get them out the fastest.

Once most of the dealer demos are produced, I anticipate Ford will start on customer units. Reservation order and wave order will probably play a role but I think it will be secondary to trim in assembly line optimization. Also remember the ongoing supply chain issues. Ford may hold back some trucks in scheduling order to make sure they have the parts they need.
 

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Don't get too excited about rumors that Wave 1s will arrive first. Ford worked hard to have First Edition Mustang Mach Es delivered first and those and some other early reservation holders were among the first to get their cars. The "First Edition" moniker led to lots of speculation that First Edition meant first delivery. Ford prioritized customer deliveries over FCTP (Ford Courtesy Transportation Program).

The result was many of these cars arrived at dealerships before the FCTPs. People were driving their own cars before having a chance to drive demos. Some early software problems started cropping up and Ford had to scramble to find these and fix customer cars.

There have been a lot of signals that Ford learned from that experience and has changed things for the Lightning launch. The biggest has been the repeated assurance that customers will be able to drive demo vehicles before their orders start to arrive.

Ford also allowed dealers to spec out their Mustang Mach Es under FCTP. For the Lightnings, Ford told dealers what they would get in the FCTP deliveries.

Shipping is also very different with Lightning than the Mustang Mach E. E-ponies are the only thing coming out of the Cuautitlan plant and all shipping was by train to Kansas City. An entire train would have Mach Es going to KC, then they were split up to go to destination terminals. That meant Ford had to fill entire train cars destined for KC before any shipped. Cars were unloaded in KC and loaded on train cars to their destination. Every train car to a central terminal like Wilmington, DE (where my car went) was full of Mach Es and all train cars were full.

In contrast there are lots of trucks and trains leaving Dearborn full of F-150s every day. Ford doesn't have to fill auto carriers with Lightning, just F-150s. I expect Lightnings will be intermixed with other F-150s coming out of Rouge. Ford has said dealers will get their FCTP first. I'll bet Ford will optimize Lightning lines to get the trucks made the fastest so all dealer demos go out as quickly as they can. I expect the Lightnings to be intermixed with ICE F-150s to get them out the fastest.

Once most of the dealer demos are produced, I anticipate Ford will start on customer units. Reservation order and wave order will probably play a role but I think it will be secondary to trim in assembly line optimization. Also remember the ongoing supply chain issues. Ford may hold back some trucks in scheduling order to make sure they have the parts they need.
Thank you. Good info...
 

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So here are my initial and most optimistic guesses:
FCTP production starts mid-March
Customer truck production starts mid-May
Customer truck scheduling starts around April 1st (prepare to be fooled that day)
Customer truck deliveries start around Mid-June
I can't un-see it and so it keeps bothering me, but did you mean to put May before April?

Good info over all. Starting to make me wonder if mine would be later than I expect if they do it in a similar wave format or if the wave format really won't matter. That tracking tool will be helpful. I'm trying to stop myself from buying a temp vehicle (or more like my wife is).
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
I can't un-see it and so it keeps bothering me, but did you mean to put May before April?
I did because I put the build dates first and then backed up to the probable scheduling dates.
Since it concerned you it may have concerned others. I edited it and put them in chronological order.
 
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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
@taxmanhog: Care to share your guesstimate of trim volumes for MY22 here?
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
interesting that it is a Lariat. People in the other thread on here, so far, have posted Platinums in April and most Lariats in May.

Though who is that person? they some kind of influencer and getting priority?
If you don't know Sergio, he is a major YouTube electric vehicle personality. I doubt it is a coincidence that he has a very early production. I expect the same may happen for Tom Mologhney (State of Charge), Alex ***** (Alex on Autos) and other influencers.
 
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Discussion Starter · #16 ·

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
The latest official information on the Lightning was from early February:
Per FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), the updated timetable information has been released for the 2022 F-150 BEV Lightning
  • 01/05/2022 - 2022MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 01/27/2022 - 2022MY Scheduling Begins
  • 03/14/2022 - 2022MY Job #1 Date
However, an inside rumor has it that initial Lightnings may start production March 1st.
Further confirmation of the March 1 rumor: Rouge plant is due to build 100 Lightning’s next week as MP1 (mass production 1) begins.
 
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