2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning Lariat ER
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Estimates of MY2022 production numbers are all over the place but center around 20,000 units during only 1/2 year of production. Since the Mustang Mach E production was around 60,000 in an overly-long first year (September 2020-December 2021), it sounds like the line rate of the two will be somewhat comparable. That means we can learn some things about when Lightnings will be scheduled, built, and delivered from the Mach E numbers.
It took the Cuautitlan plant from September 2020 - March 2021 to produce the first 20,000 vehicles.
Note that Job#1 was September 28, so that September number was less than a week of production.
As of March 2021, "Ford had over 2,100 EV certified dealers across the country—about 70% of its total 3,010 locations". Assuming one FCTP (Ford Courtesy Transportation Program) vehicles per EV-certified dealership, plus early test vehicles, trucks going to Ford executives, etc., it will probably take over 2 months of production before Ford starts to fill customer orders.
The latest official information on the Lightning was from early February:
Per FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), the updated timetable information has been released for the 2022 F-150 BEV Lightning
With the Mustang Mach E, the earliest customer scheduling was about six weeks before production start, production took about a week to 10 days.
Delivery time? It depends how far you are but certainly should be faster than delivery of Mustang Mach Es from Mexico. Perhaps 3 weeks? That would mean about 4 weeks from production start to delivery, on average.
So here are my initial and most optimistic guesses:
FCTP production starts mid-March
Customer truck scheduling starts around April 1st (prepare to be fooled that day)
Customer truck production starts mid-May
Customer truck deliveries start around Mid-June
Reality may place 1st FCTP delivery in late April and 1st customer delivery around July 1st.
That matches the latest Ford insider rumor I've heard as well -- first customer deliveries in early July.
It took the Cuautitlan plant from September 2020 - March 2021 to produce the first 20,000 vehicles.
Note that Job#1 was September 28, so that September number was less than a week of production.
As of March 2021, "Ford had over 2,100 EV certified dealers across the country—about 70% of its total 3,010 locations". Assuming one FCTP (Ford Courtesy Transportation Program) vehicles per EV-certified dealership, plus early test vehicles, trucks going to Ford executives, etc., it will probably take over 2 months of production before Ford starts to fill customer orders.
The latest official information on the Lightning was from early February:
Per FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), the updated timetable information has been released for the 2022 F-150 BEV Lightning
- 01/05/2022 - 2022MY Order Bank Open Date
- 01/27/2022 - 2022MY Scheduling Begins
- 03/14/2022 - 2022MY Job #1 Date
With the Mustang Mach E, the earliest customer scheduling was about six weeks before production start, production took about a week to 10 days.
Delivery time? It depends how far you are but certainly should be faster than delivery of Mustang Mach Es from Mexico. Perhaps 3 weeks? That would mean about 4 weeks from production start to delivery, on average.
So here are my initial and most optimistic guesses:
FCTP production starts mid-March
Customer truck scheduling starts around April 1st (prepare to be fooled that day)
Customer truck production starts mid-May
Customer truck deliveries start around Mid-June
Reality may place 1st FCTP delivery in late April and 1st customer delivery around July 1st.
That matches the latest Ford insider rumor I've heard as well -- first customer deliveries in early July.