2021 Mustang Mach E First Edition, 2016 Nissan Leaf, 2003 Toyota Tacoma, F-150 Lightning Lariat ER
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We need a massive increase in power. There are lots of ways to get there.
Future of Charging Costs
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There is so much going wrong with this projection.
Ignoring what it would take to plug in every single BEV (we'll just use CA's 18 million vehicles alone to make it less silly!), and ignoring how much copper ripe for the stealing that would require, you've also listed peak commuting times when people are supposed to be plugged in supplying the electric companies with free energy (to them anyway--I'm fairly positive they'll charge us both in the taking and the giving of it). We haven't even gotten into what a for-profit company will do once it can leverage its customers' batteries in lieu of infrastructure upgrades and maintenance. I wouldn't let them beat on my 18v Milwaukee batteries let alone my $80K truck!
I'm still straight billing no time of use yet. Delivery is $0.05095, Supply is 0.08045. There are some fees and taxes which brings that $0.13 to $0.147
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yep...'heat wave', grid can't support all the power demands...so let's adjust everyone's AC temperatures to 90F & consume all the batteries that are plugged up into the grid to help stabilize it -- like seriously?!
You want a transition to EV, invest now in building more power plants, better infrastructure...not in 2030 lol
"In total, the monthly bill of a typical residential electric customer using 600 kWh (kilowatt-hours) will increase from $179 in the winter 2021-2022 season, to approximately $293 for the winter 2022-2023 season," National Grid stated. EV revolution hasn't even started and oil is back to nearly 3$. Per mile charge cost will be more than per mile gas cost for comparable vehicles in MA.
I sold my Lightning primarily due to the cost of electricity on Cape Cod (35 cents per kWh and rising) and the fact that my 1500 diesel work truck was cheaper to drive even with current diesel prices. That first time my Charge Point home charger app showed $19.80 for a 60% charge that took me ~120 miles my eyes were opened to the true cost. My numbers were from driving the truck in September and October, before the cold weather range reduction and burning more electricity to preheat every morning. I was in it to save money more than to save the environment, but that wasn’t the reality here in MA so it went up for sale.
My truck went to a new owner in Washington state who said he was paying ~9 cents per kWh, or roughly 25% of what I pay before the coming increases. He will save a bunch of money driving the Lightning.
I think the other problem here is the great variability of the cost of electricity. I am in New England (Western MA) and my per kilowatt hour price is .14 cents. Even if that cost doubled overnight, a full “tank” would still cost me significantly less than it took to fill my 36 gallon lariat at current gas prices.
At 2.3 kWh per mile average in warm weather, the Lightning would need 43,478 kWh to reach 100K miles. Figure in a 10% loss in charging efficiency, and an overall 20% hit for winter range and preheating (likely a vast underestimate), so about 56,522 kWh. At 28 cents you’re talking $15,826 to get to 100K miles. For a gas truck assuming 18 mpg you’re using 5,555 gallons of gas to 100K miles, at today’s gas price near me of $3.49 per gallon that’s $19,389 to 100K miles. Theoretically you would be saving $3,563 in fuel costs to 100K miles. That level of savings isn’t enough to offset the higher MSRP of the EV.
For me at 35 cents per kWh the math works out to $19,783 for the Lightning vs $19,607 for my 1500 diesel at 28 mpg and $5.49 per gallon. The math still favored the Lightning slightly for me because I had a Pro for less money than the 1500 diesel, that isn’t the case for most people who purchased more expensive trucks.
Take a look at your bill, is that 14 cents for both generation and transmission? My energy cost from the third party provider is 16.999 cents per kWh, but then Eversource hits me for another 18 cents per kWh for delivery.
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maybe in the US states that chose to stick with their old fashion ways to generate power…
I am in Canada, 0.08c per kWh, anytime…they are debating creating an EV tier, 0.03c if you charge at night…
HellBoy what prov are you in again, that's cheap - in Ontario, I can't see us getting the $.03 (but it would be very nice!). I'm at $.074 ToU cheapest rate, but there are delivery + regulatory + HST charges that double that rate. So my cheap ToU rate is over double that stated $.074 once you pay the bill (or ~ $.015, still not bad).
BroncoAZ's math is consistent with what my driving experience.- my ER has used about 1,500 kWh to travel 5,100 km (900 miles) which is 3.4 km/kWh (better than I thought, I will lose some efficiency as the winter goes on and bounce back in the warmer weather). On a 131 ER battery that's an average of 445km, off the claimed 515.
When I compare to my brother's ICE F150, it costs him $150 to fill his tank and he claims he gets 1,000km on that. Using my math above, it requires 294 kWh for me to go the same distance at a cost of only $44 (my true ToU rate is $.015 will all regulatory charges folded in). If I were using public DCFC (I don't), it would be roughtly double that, $88 (I still prefer the sound his V8 makes when you put your foot down though!)
BroncoAZ's math is consistent with what my driving experience.- my ER has used about 1,500 kWh to travel 5,100 km (900 miles) which is 3.4 km/kWh (better than I thought, I will lose some efficiency as the winter goes on and bounce back in the warmer weather). On a 131 ER battery that's an average of 445km, off the claimed 515.
When I compare to my brother's ICE F150, it costs him $150 to fill his tank and he claims he gets 1,000km on that. Using my math above, it requires 294 kWh for me to go the same distance at a cost of only $44 (my true ToU rate is $.015 will all regulatory charges folded in). If I were using public DCFC (I don't), it would be roughtly double that, $88 (I still prefer the sound his V8 makes when you put your foot down though!)
The opposite seems to be closer to the truth. The more progressive states that are making rules to force green energy while forcing the closure of nuclear plants appear to have higher energy prices. That is the case where the OP and I live in MA. The last nuclear plant in MA was permitted to operate until 2026, but was shut down in 2019. There is a mandated plan for decarbonization of the power grid with an increasing annual percentage of delivered power to be from renewables. I was speaking to a potential buyer for my truck in IL, he told me they were paying under 10 cents per kWh. That didn’t make much sense with IL and MA being very similar politically, then I looked at the map of nuke plants and saw that IL is loaded with nuclear plants. Same thing for a buddy who own a Lightning in NJ paying 12 cents per kWh, also a very progressive state but with nuclear plants.
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5,100 km is 3,169 miles = 2.11 mi/kWh 'Muricanized.
The 'claimed' 515 km/320 mi EPA Range is ~2.44 kWh/mi IF you drive the EPA combined EV test cycle. None of us drive the test cycle, but I got an over 2.8 mi/kWh on an (ironically) 320 mile drive in favorable conditions coming back from a Thanksgiving trip. I stopped as planned for 12 min. of fast charging 90 miles from the destination because my tank was full.
3.5km/kWh I can live with (4 would be great and I have achieved that on warmer days earlier in the year). The province I am in has a nuclear power plants, but one is about to retire, and we clearly need double the capacity if the ideologues want everyone off ice by 2035. It’s not going to happen because the same people pushing the green initiative are also having kittens about nuclear energy and that is the only viable solution, we don’t get enough sun in the great white north to compensate, and we don’t want to end up like California.
3.5km/kWh I can live with (4 would be great and I have achieved that on warmer days earlier in the year). The province I am in has a nuclear power plants, but one is about to retire, and we clearly need double the capacity if the ideologues want everyone off ice by 2035. It’s not going to happen because the same people pushing the green initiative are also having kittens about nuclear energy and that is the only viable solution, we don’t get enough sun in the great white north to compensate, and we don’t want to end up like California.
Yes, that $.14 is everything. I do not have to pay for Eversource to deliver. I’m on a municipality power provider and ever source doesn’t hit me with an extra charge.
Additionally, for me, I have a tax indebtedness that will allow me to get the full $7500 tax credit and I already received the $7500 state tax credit because my lariat extended range qualifies as a heavy electric vehicle. So, right off the bat I was $15,000 down on the price of my truck. I am a generation one buyer, so I have no price elevation or increase to consider. Additionally I had roughly $12-$13,000 equity in my previous lariat. So I don’t have the same factors to consider that you’re pointing out.
Point blank for ME it costs less to operate this vehicle than it did my previous gas vehicle. I realize that’s not going to be true for everyone nor am I pretending it to be. All I’ve ever said is that this vehicle works for me and it’s cheaper for me to use.
When I analyzed the cost of a full charge (I did the math elsewhere on the forum in another post) a full charge cost me less than $20. At the current gas prices near me, assuming that I was always gonna fill up at Costco, which I typically do, a full tank at 36 gallons in my old lariat lariat would be $130. I don’t need a long-term outlook to see the difference in the math. Even factoring in an increase in car payment, I’m still ahead. Car insurance was a negligible increase. Because I’m not driving hundreds of miles a day, my round-trip commute is about 30 miles, the electric bill has not increased to any significant degree. Also, factor in where I am in the state there is plenty of free charging to be had; it was a no-brainer for me.
A full tank in your ICE Lariat would have taken you twice as far, yes? (still saving though vs gas)
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Maybe the question should be, "Would a full tank in the ICE Lariat have taken you 6 1/2 times as far?"
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I am out in Manitoba, our grid is mostly hydro power…we also sell to ND, SK and MN…
yeah, our local hydro is exploring that to help drive EV folks into charging overnight vs anytime - I participated in 3 surveys already, so can definitely see changes incoming.
ON is terrible, your prev. Liberal gov messed a good thing you guys had…I have friends out in Kenora that pay an absurd amount for delivery…
On another note, your friend is being optimistic with that tank of gas…I am coming from a 2.7L F150 Lariat and I could go ~900 on a good day - definitely not winter…but 136L * 1.52 = $206 for a full tank!! So my overall average was about 15L/100km.
the easy calculation for me, I’ve drive 6500km so far…
My gas F150 would be:
(6500km/100km)*15 = 975L * 1.52/L = $1.482 + $129 (oil change) = $1611
my Lightning:
(6500km/100km)*34kwh (my current lifetime average) = 2,210kwh * 0.08c = $176 but I’ve seen the truck using power on its own to keep batteries warm, total so far 315kwh, so add $25 for a total of $201
Manitoba, I forgot and yes McGinty and Wynne screwed our grid for generations (& father Trudeau is trying to finish the job at the federal level - I better park the politics).
Nice to see I’m not the only one geeking out the numbers. My brother is definitely exaggerating his ICE efficiency but drives highway a lot (10 speed so possible). BEV efficiency dies on the highway so wouldn’t work for him. Sounds like an ICE F-150 goes nearly twice as far as the Lightning (both fully replenished) but at, at least 4x’s the cost after adjusting to a per km cost, and depending on what you’re pay for gas vs electrons (at 8-cents, all in you have a bargain): $200 got me 5,100km but I’m paying more per kWh
or, using your logic, a half a tank which would take me the same distance, still costs me at least US$40-US$50 more in my ICE lariat. And of course I have to factor in that oil that I’m gonna need to use to change eventually as well as filters, and for people who live in areas where they must do emissions testing, I no longer have to pay for that either.
I did my due diligence, I did my homework, I ran the numbers and triple checked them. I simply don’t have an enlarged or exaggerated break even point. I find it hilarious that you’re ignoring the fact that I walked into this game almost $30,000 off the sticker price. Using easy math- my “break even” isn’t based on 80 some thousand dollars worth of truck, but 50k. I paid more than 50 for my internal combustion Lariat new. When I traded it in it was worth 42, I owed under 25.
I think the problem with people like you is that you want to convince everyone that because it was a poor decision for you- It must be a poor decision for them as well. I’m not really worried about whether this was a good decision for anybody else other than myself. And I really don’t care whether anyone else thinks it was a poor decision for me – they are not paying my bills or earning my living.
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