[Txxthie]

7k Lightning EVs Y2D isn’t great. This is not a ground up EV, lots of standard F150 parts used. It’s construction should be straight forward and familiar. I can’t see much retooling of the F150 line to produce lightnings. What is the bottleneck, battery supply or profit margins, or both? It’s widely known that Ford currently makes more selling an Edge vs a Mach E. That is the brilliance of Tesla’s vertical integration and manufacturing techniques. Make vehicles faster, better, and less expensive than the competition. Vertical integration is the mother of time compression. It allows you to accomplish everything faster and with less expense. Vertical integration does not necessarily guarantee the quality of what you’re producing. But it does accomplish supercharged growth. Speed to market is a product in my view and Ford needs to rapidly increase production with additional competition arriving next year.

 

[Leaf to Lightning : )]

I think there's WAY more difference between the standard F150 than this new LIGHTNING - although from the 'outside' it looks almost identical - which is Ford's intent. They wanted their normal everyday 'bread and butter' truck buyer to see almost NO DIFFERENCE between the gas and the electric versions - this is the brilliance of Ford's manufacturing and marketing to their Long-term truck buyers.
You'll notice a LOT of difference between the two when you actually compare the underbelly and the actual 'build' of the body panels, taking into consideration the difference between where an engine sits, where a transmission has to come into play, where the frame rails support a huge battery pack, where different lights/lighting seats into the body panels, and even the interior, in as much as it might 'look' like the ICE version, it's still different. Even a 'slight' difference means potentially a different supplier, different engineering, different design, etc.

As @JimFarley has said, as well as @DarrenPalmer from Ford's EV division: This is a Whole New World when it comes to manufacturing. It is NOT the same as the typical ICE factory builds.

I agree that it's great that it LOOKS the same, and doesn't draw undue attention, but it's NOT the same in every other way.

 

[Leaf to Lightning : )]

also, the numbers are actually more over 10,000+ at this point... with over 3,000 that were DEMOS for Ford's EV certified dealers, which aren't 'sold' yet, etc. By the time the 2022 models are 'complete', they will probably be very close to that 15,000 number that has been suggested many times in the past year.
Now, whether they can ramp up to something in the 80,000 range for the whole of next year remains to be seen, which is IF they can add to the manufacturing at the ROUGE center, which is certainly in progress. The new TN Blue Oval facility certainly won't be manufacturing anytime soon, maybe until the 2025 model year.
It seems that if 80,000 is possible next year, 'maybe' they can get 1/2 of the reservations to ordered/built within 2023... that's still a long wait for many hopefuls for this great machine.

The Lightning IS the '29 Model A, or the '64 1/2 Mustang, of it's time!

 

[greatbreweh]

I say first give them a chance to scale this truck as we are only talking few months production not teslas well established production of most its cars. Second ford still developing battery facilities and clearly we all know that is their biggest bottleneck currently.

 

[Trentb]

Another interesting way to look at the numbers is to compare the number of 2022 Lightnings sold to the number currently on the resale market. As of this morning there are 105 Lightnings listed on Edmunds. Additionally there are currently 36 2022 Lightnings listed on eBay. Some additional listings can be found by looking at Craigs List and AutoTrader. it appears that of the 6,842 sold so far, in the neighborhood of 150 are currently on the resale market or about 2.2%. There may be some cross listing taking place which would reduce the total number on the secondary market at any point in time.

Most of these vehicles are being listed at substantially more than MSRP. The asking price on Edmunds is about 35% more or an average of $110k. What we don’t know is how many on the resale market are actually selling for the asking price. We can look at completed sales on eBay. Final selling prices, when available, range from $63k to $115k with two selling for $130k (wow!). The median price is just under $100k.

An important factor affecting the price is whether or not the truck has the standard or extended range battery. The extended range battery seems to add $20k to $30k to the value of the truck in the secondary market, which is at least as much as the additional MSRP of the extended range battery to the vehicle’s price.

As the number of Lightnings increases and the novelty of an F-150 EV wears off, we can expect the secondary market prices to decline. But don’t hold your breath. Substantial price declines in the secondary Lightning market probably won’t occur until 2024 when the current order backlog has been worked off.

 

[Txxthie]

I think there's WAY more difference between the standard F150 than this new LIGHTNING - although from the 'outside' it looks almost identical - which is Ford's intent. They wanted their normal everyday 'bread and butter' truck buyer to see almost NO DIFFERENCE between the gas and the electric versions - this is the brilliance of Ford's manufacturing and marketing to their Long-term truck buyers.
You'll notice a LOT of difference between the two when you actually compare the underbelly and the actual 'build' of the body panels, taking into consideration the difference between where an engine sits, where a transmission has to come into play, where the frame rails support a huge battery pack, where different lights/lighting seats into the body panels, and even the interior, in as much as it might 'look' like the ICE version, it's still different. Even a 'slight' difference means potentially a different supplier, different engineering, different design, etc.

As @JimFarley has said, as well as @DarrenPalmer from Ford's EV division: This is a Whole New World when it comes to manufacturing. It is NOT the same as the typical ICE factory builds.

I agree that it's great that it LOOKS the same, and doesn't draw undue attention, but it's NOT the same in every other way.

It is still a modified ICE-vehicle architecture conversion vs a purpose-built EV platforms (Silverado). This allowed Ford to save on developmental and retooling costs. They succeeded in being the first OEM EV truck to market, but their path is not the chosen one by the leaders in the EV industry.
According to McKinsey’s 2019 report “Making electric vehicles profitable” a purpose-built EV platform is simpler to assemble and could deliver up to $600 in savings per vehicle in lower fixed-cost allocation. These savings stem from having fewer components to assemble in an optimized EV platform and requiring less capital expenditure in EV-only plants, versus complex plants that combine ICE-vehicle and EV lines.

 

[Leaf to Lightning : )]

... They succeeded in being the first OEM EV truck to market, but their path is not the chosen one by the leaders in the EV industry...

this is exactly their brilliance - they chose something harder than the 'easy' path that the others are choosing... creating an 'EV' from an existing platform is NOT the easiest path, it's the hardest.
(btw, none of that is easy, but relative to each other - also, the Silverado apparently doesn't look like a Silverado, it looks like an Avalanche, and the cyber 'truck', well, like nothing I'd want to be seen driving - the F150 simply looks like an F150... which I enjoy)...

 

[Lightning Man]

this is exactly their brilliance - they chose something harder than the 'easy' path that the others are choosing... creating an 'EV' from an existing platform is NOT the easiest path, it's the hardest.
(btw, none of that is easy, but relative to each other - also, the Silverado apparently doesn't look like a Silverado, it looks like an Avalanche, and the cyber 'truck', well, like nothing I'd want to be seen driving - the F150 simply looks like an F150... which I enjoy)...

It's not only the hardest path but also the least profitable. Ford appears to be taking a loss in order to be the first EV truck (mainstream) and it has worked.

 

[Txxthie]

this is exactly their brilliance - they chose something harder than the 'easy' path that the others are choosing... creating an 'EV' from an existing platform is NOT the easiest path, it's the hardest.
(btw, none of that is easy, but relative to each other - also, the Silverado apparently doesn't look like a Silverado, it looks like an Avalanche, and the cyber 'truck', well, like nothing I'd want to be seen driving - the F150 simply looks like an F150... which I enjoy)...

BMW recently released the i4, a converted the 4 series for the BMW purists. (IMHO it is DOA) What if Ford had gone that direction with the mustang? The F150 is very different of course due to its enormous sales and that it is a truck. The amount of meetings they must have had determining the direction to go with the Lightning. I have never personally been interested in a pickup before the Rivian and Lightning entered the scene. The Lightning's value proposition can't be beat and is why I have placed an order for a Pro. The F150's familiarity might end up being its downfall with future buyers seeking cool features that are only possible with purpose built EV's (i.e. Rivian gear tunnels or Silverado multi-flex mid gate pass-through) The Silverado's main competition is against Rivian and future bespoke EV truck platforms. The Lightning is just a placeholder while Ford works on its own bespoke EV truck platform. Its to bad Ford couldn't have had the foresight to have purchased Rivian early days. They could have had their Model e division aka Rivian and also a bespoke EV platform.

 

[Leaf to Lightning : )]

I think Ford's purpose built F150 is to suit the VAST number of truck owners who already own one, and who are already familiar with the utilitarian uses of a 'truck'... they are NOT the type to care or want the 'tech' extras(not that tech is negative, it's just not something they are willing to pay much for), or even the 'luxurious' interiors, which is another high cost upgrade.
Yes, Rivian will appeal to some, I believe a 'younger' generation, and GM an RAM will have their crowd, too, but with the F150 being the BEST SELLING VEHICLE IN THE WORLD for over 40 YEARS, no, I won't bet against Ford on that one.

 

[THEsocalledfan]

I think Ford's purpose built F150 is to suit the VAST number of truck owners who already own one, and who are already familiar with the utilitarian uses of a 'truck'... they are NOT the type to care or want the 'tech' extras(not that tech is negative, it's just not something they are willing to pay much for), or even the 'luxurious' interiors, which is another high cost upgrade.
Yes, Rivian will appeal to some, I believe a 'younger' generation, and GM an RAM will have their crowd, too, but with the F150 being the BEST SELLING VEHICLE IN THE WORLD for over 40 YEARS, no, I won't bet against Ford on that one.

I think I'm one of these. I will not sacrifice size for better efficiency. If I had someone offer me a Lariat ice ford or a rivian, I'd take the Ford. I don't want a toy truck.

 

[Joseywales]

I think I'm one of these. I will not sacrifice size for better efficiency. If I had someone offer me a Lariat ice ford or a rivian, I'd take the Ford. I don't want a toy truck.

I on the other hand, would trade for an R1T all day. 👀

 

[bassmanchuck]

The dashed line is the monthly production required to meet their stated 150k/year. I'd say they have a long way to go.

 

[Txxthie]

View attachment 4166
The dashed line is the monthly production required to meet their stated 150k/year. I'd say they have a long way to go.

It’s not easy to scale EV production or for that matter financially feasible. Only 3 companies show profits producing EVs : Tesla, BYD, Porsche. Tesla is by all rumors set to break a monthly (Sept) production record in China with 100,000 vehicles produced. Ford indeed has a long way to go.

 

[jodgey]

You guys remember when Elon was trying to scale up the model 3, and the world was trying to say he and his company were a failure because they were kissing production targets by 25% the first quarter

 

[tactfulreverend]

So they need to get to 12500 per month. They reached 2500 in 3 months. Looks like they’re on track for 12500 in 12 more months. Not so long in my book.

 

[bassmanchuck]

So they need to get to 12500 per month. They reached 2500 in 3 months. Looks like they’re on track for 12500 in 12 more months. Not so long in my book.

They have 3 months to reach 12500 units/month

 

[tactfulreverend]

I remember reading that the target was 150k/year by mid 2013 so > 3 months but < 12.

 

[ChasingCoral]

7k Lightning EVs Y2D isn’t great. This is not a ground up EV, lots of standard F150 parts used. It’s construction should be straight forward and familiar. I can’t see much retooling of the F150 line to produce lightnings. What is the bottleneck, battery supply or profit margins, or both? It’s widely known that Ford currently makes more selling an Edge vs a Mach E. That is the brilliance of Tesla’s vertical integration and manufacturing techniques. Make vehicles faster, better, and less expensive than the competition. Vertical integration is the mother of time compression. It allows you to accomplish everything faster and with less expense. Vertical integration does not necessarily guarantee the quality of what you’re producing. But it does accomplish supercharged growth. Speed to market is a product in my view and Ford needs to rapidly increase production with additional competition arriving next year.

Tesla sold 18,742 cars in 2015, 26,725 in 2016, 50,067 in 2017.
We don't know the total sales planned by Ford for Lightnings in 2022 but they plan 80,000 in 2023 and 150,000 in 2024.

Sorry, neither Tesla nor Elon Musk walk on water.