There's a lot of information swirling around in this thread.
1. I do believe the ESP explicitly excludes the traction battery. Verify that before buying a plan for extra protection beyond the federal limit. Also, I do believe CA's traction battery is longer than the standard federal one (may be 10/100K).
2. While extended warranties do tend to benefit the companies selling them, that information shouldn't be applied entirely to this context without question. One, most of those extended warranties are sold (and backed) via 3rd party whereas the ESP is an extended warranty from the manufacturer. It may or may not make a huge difference in one's thinking, but it does bear mentioning that extended warranty companies sell warranties (and therefore have incentive not to honor them if/when they can) whereas Ford sells vehicles (and therefore has incentives to keep them running in operable shape). Secondly, even if it's true that extended warranties, in the aggregate, tend to make more money for the seller than the buyer it's also true that specific circumstances can tilt that balance the other way. For example, we're dealing with a new vehicle that heavily relies on a tremendous amount of integrated electronics. Just because an ESP doesn't make economic sense for a Fiesta doesn't mean they won't make sense for a Lightning.
3. That electronics bit in #2 is really important. In this specific scenario, we're looking at any single repair that would greatly exceed the price of the warranty. I paid $1,350 for an 8/100K ESP and all I "need" for it to pay for itself is the big screen in the middle of the dash controlling the entire vehicle to take a dump. I could go down the list but the point is it won't take much and it won't take it happening very often to break even or better.
4. The point about mean failure times of electronic vs. mechanicals is well-received. That said, we don't know what that really means. If it means most electronics are likely to fail within the first year that's one thing, but if it means they tend to fail in year 5 that's a different matter entirely. In my personal experience electronics either fail right when I bring them home (they're defective) or they fail sometime around/within a decade (failed caps, etc.).
5. Certainly Ford's actuaries have built these programs to maximize revenue. We don't, however, know where they intend to derive their revenue. It could be a loss leader to get you to spring for the relatively useless tire/wheel package. Or maybe it's part of getting customers into the dealerships. If the logic that they wouldn't sell them if they didn't make money off them is reasonable, then it should also be reasonable to acknowledge if they plans were entirely useless no one would buy them.
