Ford Lightning Forum banner

Do you think Ford will overtake Tesla in EV sales?

  • Yes

    Votes: 5 62.5%
  • No

    Votes: 3 37.5%
1 - 6 of 6 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
398 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·

·
Registered
Joined
·
2 Posts
It’s not doable in the next few years, and likely not ever.

Based on Q4 numbers, Tesla’s production rate is over 1.2M vehicles and they are opening two new factories and increasing the existing ones. Run rate end of 2022 should be around 2 million+. Total production in 2022 will likely be 1.5 - 1.8 million, potentially more. Tesla also continually guides greater than 50% CAGR.

There really isn’t any way Ford can catch and pass that based on the plans Ford has.
Tesla will be number one in EV sales for a long time but Ford appears to be laying the groundwork to be a solid #2.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
38 Posts
It’s not doable in the next few years, and likely not ever.

Based on Q4 numbers, Tesla’s production rate is over 1.2M vehicles and they are opening two new factories and increasing the existing ones. Run rate end of 2022 should be around 2 million+. Total production in 2022 will likely be 1.5 - 1.8 million, potentially more. Tesla also continually guides greater than 50% CAGR.

There really isn’t any way Ford can catch and pass that based on the plans Ford has.

Tesla will be number one in EV sales for a long time but Ford appears to be laying the groundwork to be a solid #2.

Tesla will be number one in EV sales for a long time but Ford appears to be laying the groundwork to be a solid #2.
I think that's what will happen too. Tesla has too much of a jump right now for them to be overtaken any time soon. Maybe in the long long run Ford can overtake them but they should be more focused on staying of the rest of the competition and not chasing Tesla.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
56 Posts
I think it is possible if Tesla continues with their trend of delaying. I think the external factors are what hampers (supply chain). Ford is a legacy producer, there is no way they can't ramp quickly to match that output. And while I HATE dealerships, there is something to be said about driving down the road and seeing a lot with vehicles on it. In the last 2-3 years Ford has produced numerous new vehicles (Mach E, Bronco, Bronco sport, Maverick and the Ranger) and they are shifting other vehicles to EV in the near future.

I'm only basing any of this off what I see Tesla doing and not doing. Model 3 as supposed to be the affordable one, now a different one is coming to make it '2 Sexy' (and they still haven't shown much with the CyberTruck, going in for an addition redesign already). I was on board with them until the Model 3 was posted and I didn't like that interior. I didn't like them telling me what I want instead of trying to offer what is common across all brands. I wanted heated seats, I want ventilated seats. I want a heated steering wheel. But instead of saying that'll come down the line you get the company and the fan boys saying you don't need them. Making it seem like I have never driven before and don't know what I want. I'm glad a lot of the industry is 'pie in the eyeing' them by putting a screen in front of the driver. And I don't even want to begin with the F1 steering wheel.

Then of course when other companies come out and do something different...now the Cybertruck is going to have 4 motors and crab walk. They are putting ventilated seats in the cars. Tesla production is up but if they don't start to bend; the competition is going to dust them. (I mean seriously, if you have the money to buy a Tesla Model S top of the line, you have the money to buy any of the Taycans and the Hummer EV - and I'd love the Hummer EV) They've done something amazing, but we are shifting now. The Rivian looks like a great truck and if I didn't need something this year I might have stuck with them.

I've liked what Ford has been doing these last couple of years. I'm really impressed with the Mach E. I love the Bronco. The refresh of the F-150, Explorer, Edge and Lincolns. They have been killing it imo. I even like the bronco sport; which I scoffed at when I first heard about it. A lot of the time when I'm out in the Mach E people are stopping me and asking about it. (mainly cause they see me loading stuff in the front - which I know isn't unique to the Mach E but they start thinking it is a Tesla and see it is not). I had someone hold up a turning lane line to get my attention to ask me about the Mach E.

The reason I'm going with the Lightning is because it check-boxes more of the things I want that any other. I need something bigger for my family; most EVs aren't big enough. The Model X might be but it doesn't check the other boxes. I like the interior, it has the features I want that Tesla doesn't have. I can haul stuff for my yard and various other things. I can use it as a daily commuter and not have to deal with gas.

and I'll stop blabbing with this: the Mach E didn't out do the EPA numbers of the Model Y but it has been selling well. So they are now taking the number one selling vehicle and making it an EV and getting people in it. Get it out there for everyone to see and in the next couple of years the battery tech gets better, update the Lightning...(I could see RAM hitting the market hard though. It is smart to sometimes be last). But Ford doesn't have to chase Tesla, they could outpace them with all the vehicles people already know being converted to EVs. I'm thinking in the next 12 months they'll release something for Lincoln or the Explorer (I think they are waiting for the R1S to come out).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2 Posts
That’s a nice opinion but what it comes down to is production capacity of EVs. It’s a numbers game, not an opinion game.

Tesla was at 1.2M production run rate in Q4. Two new factories are about to come online and they are continuing to expand production capacity of the current two factories. Tesla also continues to guide greater than 50% CAGR. Keep in mind, that’s what they guided for 2021 but it was actually 87%.

What has Ford said publicly about its EV production capacity? You say there’s no way Ford can’t match Tesla’s output, so why hasn’t Ford done it? When should we expect Ford to begin trying and beat Tesla?

I like what Ford is doing and think they will sell as many EVs as they can make but the problem is Ford doesn’t have the production capacity and it’s not easy to increase without years of work.

I think it is possible if Tesla continues with their trend of delaying. I think the external factors are what hampers (supply chain). Ford is a legacy producer, there is no way they can't ramp quickly to match that output. And while I HATE dealerships, there is something to be said about driving down the road and seeing a lot with vehicles on it. In the last 2-3 years Ford has produced numerous new vehicles (Mach E, Bronco, Bronco sport, Maverick and the Ranger) and they are shifting other vehicles to EV in the near future.

I'm only basing any of this off what I see Tesla doing and not doing. Model 3 as supposed to be the affordable one, now a different one is coming to make it '2 Sexy' (and they still haven't shown much with the CyberTruck, going in for an addition redesign already). I was on board with them until the Model 3 was posted and I didn't like that interior. I didn't like them telling me what I want instead of trying to offer what is common across all brands. I wanted heated seats, I want ventilated seats. I want a heated steering wheel. But instead of saying that'll come down the line you get the company and the fan boys saying you don't need them. Making it seem like I have never driven before and don't know what I want. I'm glad a lot of the industry is 'pie in the eyeing' them by putting a screen in front of the driver. And I don't even want to begin with the F1 steering wheel.

Then of course when other companies come out and do something different...now the Cybertruck is going to have 4 motors and crab walk. They are putting ventilated seats in the cars. Tesla production is up but if they don't start to bend; the competition is going to dust them. (I mean seriously, if you have the money to buy a Tesla Model S top of the line, you have the money to buy any of the Taycans and the Hummer EV - and I'd love the Hummer EV) They've done something amazing, but we are shifting now. The Rivian looks like a great truck and if I didn't need something this year I might have stuck with them.

I've liked what Ford has been doing these last couple of years. I'm really impressed with the Mach E. I love the Bronco. The refresh of the F-150, Explorer, Edge and Lincolns. They have been killing it imo. I even like the bronco sport; which I scoffed at when I first heard about it. A lot of the time when I'm out in the Mach E people are stopping me and asking about it. (mainly cause they see me loading stuff in the front - which I know isn't unique to the Mach E but they start thinking it is a Tesla and see it is not). I had someone hold up a turning lane line to get my attention to ask me about the Mach E.

The reason I'm going with the Lightning is because it check-boxes more of the things I want that any other. I need something bigger for my family; most EVs aren't big enough. The Model X might be but it doesn't check the other boxes. I like the interior, it has the features I want that Tesla doesn't have. I can haul stuff for my yard and various other things. I can use it as a daily commuter and not have to deal with gas.

and I'll stop blabbing with this: the Mach E didn't out do the EPA numbers of the Model Y but it has been selling well. So they are now taking the number one selling vehicle and making it an EV and getting people in it. Get it out there for everyone to see and in the next couple of years the battery tech gets better, update the Lightning...(I could see RAM hitting the market hard though. It is smart to sometimes be last)
 

·
Registered
Model 3 AWD, Lightning Lariat on order
Joined
·
87 Posts
No one will catch Tesla for a while. As @ButtholeSurfers has noted Tesla is too far ahead. Model Y should start rolling off the line in TX in the next week or two and Cybertruck will follow this year. China, Germany, Fremont alone almost hit a million this past year and that was after Tesla screwed up the S and X refresh, they delivered very few of those models.

Even with Tesla not being able to ramp a factory or a refreshed line very well, they are getting better. Ford and all others are a late to the party. They weren't going to lead, so all they can do is follow for a while. I think world wide they obviously can and will build more some day, but it is a few years down the road.

Tesla is also learning, they are morphing a little. @FM_Jack has some points, but the improvements they've already made to the 3 and the Y in just 3 years is pretty astonishing. Improving battery efficiency, performance, noise reduction, changing from single pane to double pane glass, ditching the inductive heater for a heat pump. They are not afraid of making a change and they do it often. They don't recognize model years for making a change. If they have something better, they implement it on the fly. They have also just left the lead acid 12 volt battery behind and moved to a li ion 12v. They did it first in China and changed here within a couple of months. They also just upgraded the main computer to an AMD Rizen chip. This happened near the beginning of the 2022 year model, but they don't wait, they put them in when engineered, continually improving.

Ford unfortunately for years has shown and proven just how laggard they want to be. Do just enough to survive. Sync was so slow and laggard. Embarrassing actually, but it survived and worked and lets face it, really no competition, so they didn't need to improve it. The latest iteration finally seems to be speedy and maybe meet today's demands. I've not followed the MachE as much as I should have to see how they've really done, but they had to do it to compete, or Tesla would eat their lunch in the MachE market too. Competition is very good for all of us.
 
1 - 6 of 6 Posts
Top