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Do you think Ford will overtake Tesla in EV sales?

  • Yes

    Votes: 11 61.1%
  • No

    Votes: 7 38.9%
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It’s not doable in the next few years, and likely not ever.

Based on Q4 numbers, Tesla’s production rate is over 1.2M vehicles and they are opening two new factories and increasing the existing ones. Run rate end of 2022 should be around 2 million+. Total production in 2022 will likely be 1.5 - 1.8 million, potentially more. Tesla also continually guides greater than 50% CAGR.

There really isn’t any way Ford can catch and pass that based on the plans Ford has.
Tesla will be number one in EV sales for a long time but Ford appears to be laying the groundwork to be a solid #2.
 

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It’s not doable in the next few years, and likely not ever.

Based on Q4 numbers, Tesla’s production rate is over 1.2M vehicles and they are opening two new factories and increasing the existing ones. Run rate end of 2022 should be around 2 million+. Total production in 2022 will likely be 1.5 - 1.8 million, potentially more. Tesla also continually guides greater than 50% CAGR.

There really isn’t any way Ford can catch and pass that based on the plans Ford has.

Tesla will be number one in EV sales for a long time but Ford appears to be laying the groundwork to be a solid #2.

Tesla will be number one in EV sales for a long time but Ford appears to be laying the groundwork to be a solid #2.
I think that's what will happen too. Tesla has too much of a jump right now for them to be overtaken any time soon. Maybe in the long long run Ford can overtake them but they should be more focused on staying of the rest of the competition and not chasing Tesla.
 

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I think it is possible if Tesla continues with their trend of delaying. I think the external factors are what hampers (supply chain). Ford is a legacy producer, there is no way they can't ramp quickly to match that output. And while I HATE dealerships, there is something to be said about driving down the road and seeing a lot with vehicles on it. In the last 2-3 years Ford has produced numerous new vehicles (Mach E, Bronco, Bronco sport, Maverick and the Ranger) and they are shifting other vehicles to EV in the near future.

I'm only basing any of this off what I see Tesla doing and not doing. Model 3 as supposed to be the affordable one, now a different one is coming to make it '2 Sexy' (and they still haven't shown much with the CyberTruck, going in for an addition redesign already). I was on board with them until the Model 3 was posted and I didn't like that interior. I didn't like them telling me what I want instead of trying to offer what is common across all brands. I wanted heated seats, I want ventilated seats. I want a heated steering wheel. But instead of saying that'll come down the line you get the company and the fan boys saying you don't need them. Making it seem like I have never driven before and don't know what I want. I'm glad a lot of the industry is 'pie in the eyeing' them by putting a screen in front of the driver. And I don't even want to begin with the F1 steering wheel.

Then of course when other companies come out and do something different...now the Cybertruck is going to have 4 motors and crab walk. They are putting ventilated seats in the cars. Tesla production is up but if they don't start to bend; the competition is going to dust them. (I mean seriously, if you have the money to buy a Tesla Model S top of the line, you have the money to buy any of the Taycans and the Hummer EV - and I'd love the Hummer EV) They've done something amazing, but we are shifting now. The Rivian looks like a great truck and if I didn't need something this year I might have stuck with them.

I've liked what Ford has been doing these last couple of years. I'm really impressed with the Mach E. I love the Bronco. The refresh of the F-150, Explorer, Edge and Lincolns. They have been killing it imo. I even like the bronco sport; which I scoffed at when I first heard about it. A lot of the time when I'm out in the Mach E people are stopping me and asking about it. (mainly cause they see me loading stuff in the front - which I know isn't unique to the Mach E but they start thinking it is a Tesla and see it is not). I had someone hold up a turning lane line to get my attention to ask me about the Mach E.

The reason I'm going with the Lightning is because it check-boxes more of the things I want that any other. I need something bigger for my family; most EVs aren't big enough. The Model X might be but it doesn't check the other boxes. I like the interior, it has the features I want that Tesla doesn't have. I can haul stuff for my yard and various other things. I can use it as a daily commuter and not have to deal with gas.

and I'll stop blabbing with this: the Mach E didn't out do the EPA numbers of the Model Y but it has been selling well. So they are now taking the number one selling vehicle and making it an EV and getting people in it. Get it out there for everyone to see and in the next couple of years the battery tech gets better, update the Lightning...(I could see RAM hitting the market hard though. It is smart to sometimes be last). But Ford doesn't have to chase Tesla, they could outpace them with all the vehicles people already know being converted to EVs. I'm thinking in the next 12 months they'll release something for Lincoln or the Explorer (I think they are waiting for the R1S to come out).
 

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That’s a nice opinion but what it comes down to is production capacity of EVs. It’s a numbers game, not an opinion game.

Tesla was at 1.2M production run rate in Q4. Two new factories are about to come online and they are continuing to expand production capacity of the current two factories. Tesla also continues to guide greater than 50% CAGR. Keep in mind, that’s what they guided for 2021 but it was actually 87%.

What has Ford said publicly about its EV production capacity? You say there’s no way Ford can’t match Tesla’s output, so why hasn’t Ford done it? When should we expect Ford to begin trying and beat Tesla?

I like what Ford is doing and think they will sell as many EVs as they can make but the problem is Ford doesn’t have the production capacity and it’s not easy to increase without years of work.

I think it is possible if Tesla continues with their trend of delaying. I think the external factors are what hampers (supply chain). Ford is a legacy producer, there is no way they can't ramp quickly to match that output. And while I HATE dealerships, there is something to be said about driving down the road and seeing a lot with vehicles on it. In the last 2-3 years Ford has produced numerous new vehicles (Mach E, Bronco, Bronco sport, Maverick and the Ranger) and they are shifting other vehicles to EV in the near future.

I'm only basing any of this off what I see Tesla doing and not doing. Model 3 as supposed to be the affordable one, now a different one is coming to make it '2 Sexy' (and they still haven't shown much with the CyberTruck, going in for an addition redesign already). I was on board with them until the Model 3 was posted and I didn't like that interior. I didn't like them telling me what I want instead of trying to offer what is common across all brands. I wanted heated seats, I want ventilated seats. I want a heated steering wheel. But instead of saying that'll come down the line you get the company and the fan boys saying you don't need them. Making it seem like I have never driven before and don't know what I want. I'm glad a lot of the industry is 'pie in the eyeing' them by putting a screen in front of the driver. And I don't even want to begin with the F1 steering wheel.

Then of course when other companies come out and do something different...now the Cybertruck is going to have 4 motors and crab walk. They are putting ventilated seats in the cars. Tesla production is up but if they don't start to bend; the competition is going to dust them. (I mean seriously, if you have the money to buy a Tesla Model S top of the line, you have the money to buy any of the Taycans and the Hummer EV - and I'd love the Hummer EV) They've done something amazing, but we are shifting now. The Rivian looks like a great truck and if I didn't need something this year I might have stuck with them.

I've liked what Ford has been doing these last couple of years. I'm really impressed with the Mach E. I love the Bronco. The refresh of the F-150, Explorer, Edge and Lincolns. They have been killing it imo. I even like the bronco sport; which I scoffed at when I first heard about it. A lot of the time when I'm out in the Mach E people are stopping me and asking about it. (mainly cause they see me loading stuff in the front - which I know isn't unique to the Mach E but they start thinking it is a Tesla and see it is not). I had someone hold up a turning lane line to get my attention to ask me about the Mach E.

The reason I'm going with the Lightning is because it check-boxes more of the things I want that any other. I need something bigger for my family; most EVs aren't big enough. The Model X might be but it doesn't check the other boxes. I like the interior, it has the features I want that Tesla doesn't have. I can haul stuff for my yard and various other things. I can use it as a daily commuter and not have to deal with gas.

and I'll stop blabbing with this: the Mach E didn't out do the EPA numbers of the Model Y but it has been selling well. So they are now taking the number one selling vehicle and making it an EV and getting people in it. Get it out there for everyone to see and in the next couple of years the battery tech gets better, update the Lightning...(I could see RAM hitting the market hard though. It is smart to sometimes be last)
 

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No one will catch Tesla for a while. As @ButtholeSurfers has noted Tesla is too far ahead. Model Y should start rolling off the line in TX in the next week or two and Cybertruck will follow this year. China, Germany, Fremont alone almost hit a million this past year and that was after Tesla screwed up the S and X refresh, they delivered very few of those models.

Even with Tesla not being able to ramp a factory or a refreshed line very well, they are getting better. Ford and all others are a late to the party. They weren't going to lead, so all they can do is follow for a while. I think world wide they obviously can and will build more some day, but it is a few years down the road.

Tesla is also learning, they are morphing a little. @FM_Jack has some points, but the improvements they've already made to the 3 and the Y in just 3 years is pretty astonishing. Improving battery efficiency, performance, noise reduction, changing from single pane to double pane glass, ditching the inductive heater for a heat pump. They are not afraid of making a change and they do it often. They don't recognize model years for making a change. If they have something better, they implement it on the fly. They have also just left the lead acid 12 volt battery behind and moved to a li ion 12v. They did it first in China and changed here within a couple of months. They also just upgraded the main computer to an AMD Rizen chip. This happened near the beginning of the 2022 year model, but they don't wait, they put them in when engineered, continually improving.

Ford unfortunately for years has shown and proven just how laggard they want to be. Do just enough to survive. Sync was so slow and laggard. Embarrassing actually, but it survived and worked and lets face it, really no competition, so they didn't need to improve it. The latest iteration finally seems to be speedy and maybe meet today's demands. I've not followed the MachE as much as I should have to see how they've really done, but they had to do it to compete, or Tesla would eat their lunch in the MachE market too. Competition is very good for all of us.
 
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Ford should buy out all the dealers, using preferred shares, and standardize sales.
 
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What has Ford said publicly about its EV production capacity? You say there’s no way Ford can’t match Tesla’s output, so why hasn’t Ford done it? When should we expect Ford to begin trying and beat Tesla?
Supply Chain.

I get everyone loves Tesla and I'm not going to say you shouldn't. I do find it odd that the OP asked about sales and you mainly pointed out production.

I think Ford will be a solid #2 for a couple of years because so many other companies will come out with EVs and the margins will be spread thin. That's what will slow Tesla down imo. Not because Ford will beat them. The argument I always see is Tesla was first, Tesla's infotainment is the best and autopilot. However I know so many people that would buy something else over a Tesla. Taycan is a great car, infotainment is not as great. Not everyone values what you or anyone else values in the Tesla. Tesla's success is that they made it possible and changed the industry but that doesn't mean that the product they produced is what everyone wants. Tesla improvements in the last 3 years, as was noted, is because the value proposition for those vehicles has to be more than they were first. I know people, cause I guess I'm not rich, that won't pay over 50k for a vehicle. And need a vehicle that is bigger than a model 3. (I'm not mentioning the Y cause that's more)

I find it odd that it is always the same comments against any legacy automaker. A legacy automaker has been making cars far longer than Tesla, way more assets. But somehow none of that matters.

Will they beat them in sales? Nobody knows and everything is opinion.
 
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That’s a nice opinion but what it comes down to is production capacity of EVs. It’s a numbers game, not an opinion game.

Tesla was at 1.2M production run rate in Q4. Two new factories are about to come online and they are continuing to expand production capacity of the current two factories. Tesla also continues to guide greater than 50% CAGR. Keep in mind, that’s what they guided for 2021 but it was actually 87%.

What has Ford said publicly about its EV production capacity? You say there’s no way Ford can’t match Tesla’s output, so why hasn’t Ford done it? When should we expect Ford to begin trying and beat Tesla?

I like what Ford is doing and think they will sell as many EVs as they can make but the problem is Ford doesn’t have the production capacity and it’s not easy to increase without years of work.
Great answer and also the reason why it will be a while…

Ford was headed in the right direction with Mullaly but between 2015-2019? they were lost as heck in the EV space….remember Mark Fields wanted to canceled ALL hybrid and EV plans lol

so yeah Ford have many many years to catch up Tesla - eventually they will, simply because of manufacturing capability.
 

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Great answer and also the reason why it will be a while…

Ford was headed in the right direction with Mullaly but between 2015-2019? they were lost as heck in the EV space….remember Mark Fields wanted to canceled ALL hybrid and EV plans lol

so yeah Ford have many many years to catch up Tesla - eventually they will, simply because of manufacturing capability.
I like the open conversation and I don't know who will have more capability in 2 years or 10 years from now, but I think Tesla is or can be as nimble as anyone. Ford does have a ton of factories out there, but most note to build an EV the factories must be retooled which can take a while. Giga TX went from ground breaking to building a car in 18 months. Add in some of the Tesla innovations like the Giga presses which removes many individual parts and removes many manual steps from the process and Tesla will be putting a lot of pressure on the traditionalists which are faced with many barriers to move this quick. They can build these factories one every couple of years and bring with them the most modern technology.

Keep in mind - their number one guy is someone that just dropped $44 B on Twitter- and with that kind of money he could build another 10 Gigafactories.
 
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I like the open conversation and I don't know who will have more capability in 2 years or 10 years from now, but I think Tesla is or can be as nimble as anyone. Ford does have a ton of factories out there, but most note to build an EV the factories must be retooled which can take a while. Giga TX went from ground breaking to building a car in 18 months. Add in some of the Tesla innovations like the Giga presses which removes many individual parts and removes many manual steps from the process and Tesla will be putting a lot of pressure on the traditionalists which are faced with many barriers to move this quick. They can build these factories one every couple of years and bring with them the most modern technology.

Keep in mind - their number one guy is someone that just dropped $44 B on Twitter- and with that kind of money he could build another 10 Gigafactories.
He has the money but it seems like his mind is on so many other things other than the cars. Twitter, the robots, rockets, tunnels, and neuralink at one point or another divert his attention.
 

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He has the money but it seems like his mind is on so many other things other than the cars. Twitter, the robots, rockets, tunnels, and neuralink at one point or another divert his attention.
yep - the CT delay is just a great example, I bet he started as a pet project but abandoned it to drive other things.
 

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yep - the CT delay is just a great example, I bet he started as a pet project but abandoned it to drive other things.
I bet the cyber truck does launch eventually. I think he’s maxing out production bandwidth with their higher margin products during a time of high demand and limited production capacity; they’re selling everything they can build. And a ton of capital expenditures in tandem. Same reason the production cuts on S and X are the current state; those are in pretty high demand and they’re well suited to produce them, but limited production cell capacity drives them to go all in on Y and the 3. They’re killing it. But I think Ford is in a great spot to be #2 and if Ford is going to overtake Tesla, it’ll be 5-7 years minimum. But my crystal ball isn’t always right, so 🤷🏻.
 

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So, Tesla has quarterly sales of 70+45+6 ~ 125,000 cars per quarter, ~600,000 per year. Tesla is building a new plant.

Ford says it will be producing 600,000 EVs per year by the end of 2023. Ford might be able to overtake Tesla in US sales by 2025 -- maybe.
 

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It’s not doable in the next few years, and likely not ever.

Based on Q4 numbers, Tesla’s production rate is over 1.2M vehicles and they are opening two new factories and increasing the existing ones. Run rate end of 2022 should be around 2 million+. Total production in 2022 will likely be 1.5 - 1.8 million, potentially more. Tesla also continually guides greater than 50% CAGR.

There really isn’t any way Ford can catch and pass that based on the plans Ford has.
Tesla will be number one in EV sales for a long time but Ford appears to be laying the groundwork to be a solid #2.
It won't be one manufacturer but a dozens or so chipping away at Tesla's plans for volume sales. Tesla will have three large plants around the globe with considerable operating costs and to-date only 2 volume products (Model 3/Y). The Cybertruck will be the 1st time Tesla enters into a segment where very credible BEV rivals will already exist. The legacy manufacturers will continue to generate profits from petrol powered vehicles AND BEVs. Tesla will have to compete price wise with BEV revenue only. Taking 30% of annual BEV sales Tesla was hoping for could be a problem for Tesla. People like choice and Tesla to-date is plenty of choice as long as it is limited color, limited options, small service network, AND no promised FSD.
 
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