[RDale]

California is set to ban the sale of new gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035.

All new vehicles must be gas-free by 2035, California says

California is poised to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035 in a move that will put additional pressure on automakers to bolster an already stressed supply chain for electric vehicles.

www.axios.com

California is poised to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035 in a massive push toward EV adoption being heralded as a major win in the fight against climate change.

Why it matters: The plan would effectively start the clock on what would be a huge challenge for an industry already facing production shortfalls, stressed supply chains and unforeseen cost challenges for electric vehicles.

Driving the news: The California Air Resources Board will vote Thursday on a rule requiring all new vehicles to be fossil-fuel-free by 2035. The widely expected move comes after Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order in 2020 calling for such a goal.

• "It's ambitious, it's pioneering, it's what we must do if we're going to leave this planet better for future generations," Lauren Sanchez, senior climate adviser to Newsom, said Wednesday on a conference call.

State of play: Automakers are investing heavily in electric vehicles, with several — including General Motors, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo — having already committed to transitioning fully to EVs by 2035 or earlier.

• EVs made up 15% of California new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2022, according to the California New Car Dealer’s Association.

Yes, but: Meeting the 2035 goal will put immense pressure on automakers to accelerate production of vehicles that they currently can’t build enough of.

• Shortages of battery components, including crucial raw materials, have hampered output, leading to long wait times.
• John Bozzella, CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents the major automakers on policy issues, said the targets will be "extremely challenging" to hit.

Details: 35% of automakers' new sales in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles in 2026. The targets — which allow for some plug-in hybrids — steadily increase each year, hitting 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035.

What they're saying: “I don’t know if it’s realistic,” Autotrader analyst Michelle Krebs tells Axios. “Everybody’s working toward that goal, but there are some hurdles — and some we had not anticipated.”

• "Whether or not these requirements are realistic or achievable is directly linked to external factors like inflation, charging and fuel infrastructure, supply chains, labor, critical mineral availability and pricing, and the ongoing semiconductor shortage," Bozzella said in a statement. "These are complex, intertwined and global issues well beyond the control of either CARB or the auto industry."

Worth noting: Prices of EVs were supposed to be declining by now due to increased economies of scale. Instead, they’ve been increasing.

• The average transaction price of an EV in July was $62,893, up 14.8% from $54,797 a year earlier, according to Edmunds. That compares with an average of $47,198 for all vehicles in July.
• “Affordability is the biggest issue,” Krebs says. “I don’t know if there will be enough vehicles at an affordable price by 2035.”

💭 Nathan’s thought bubble: There are realistic goals — and then there are stretch goals. This one feels more like the latter — unless supply chain problems clear up quickly, or California backs up its mandate with significant incentives on top of a federal EV tax credit, for which very few vehicles currently qualify.

• But California has a long-established track record of pressing the auto industry to achieve higher fuel efficiency targets than the federal government requires.
• And those requirements have prompted automakers to boost fuel economy in the past, sometimes even as they grumble about it because they can’t afford to miss out on the lucrative Californian market.

What others are saying: "If automakers can pick up production, sufficient investments are made in charging infrastructure and the power grid, and financial incentives can be made more available, this milestone should be achievable — if not surpassable," wrote Edmunds analyst Jessica Caldwell.

What we’re watching: Whether automakers can obtain sufficient supplies to meet demand.

• “We always reserve the right to amend the regulation at any point,” Jennifer Gress, CARB’s sustainable transportation chief, said on the conference call. “We will certainly be monitoring this one closely is — how is the market doing.”

(Disclosure: Autotrader is owned by Cox Enterprises, an Axios investor that recently reached a deal to acquire the company.)

 

[FM_Jack]

Can always reverse it. This just feels too much like non-engineer people thinking they know what it takes to engineer something and what will really work. There are other factors but it is still a popularity contest.

 

[johnnycwat]

Sweet. With everyone using electric of their cars I am sure that will fix their electric grid problems. I predict statewide brown outs starting in 2035!

 

[CDT]

I love it. I have two EV‘s now and will take delivery of my lightning on Monday. I will have to get more into the fine print but I do wonder what they’re going to do about people who actually need big vehicles for towing etc. We have a diesel for trailering horses, as of right now there isn’t an electric vehicle capable of doing that.

 

[corradoborg]

Frankly, as bold as this plan is it's still very little, very late (not too little, too late, as that would imply there's no use even bothering). We should've done this globally over 40 years ago when the science of climate change was first coming into focus. Alas, far too many people think of profit over planet.

 

[HellBoy]

Frankly, as bold as this plan is it's still very little, very late (not too little, too late, as that would imply there's no use even bothering). We should've done this globally over 40 years ago when the science of climate change was first coming into focus. Alas, far too many people think of profit over planet.

Absolutely too late...no one gives a damn about the environment - that is just reality, government and corporations just pretend they do and move at 0.25mph....
for example - we could keep millions of people working from home, immediately reducing piles of emissions from transportation, like we did in 2020....instead many business and gov. out there are reversing that policy. If we kept that going, overtime, you'd build strong/smaller communities with amenities near by that would further reduce our carbon footprint...

keep in mind that is just ONE example....I can think about a dozen - would it cause pain to the existing way of life?? yep for some, for sure - cities would have to adapt, some would likely not survive but we need to do it.

at this rate, I expect the worth and I am happy I am not going to live children behind.

 

[corradoborg]

Absolutely too late...no one gives a damn about the environment - that is just reality, government and corporations just pretend they do and move at 0.25mph....
for example - we could keep millions of people working from home, immediately reducing piles of emissions from transportation, like we did in 2020....instead many business and gov. out there are reversing that policy. If we kept that going, overtime, you'd build strong/smaller communities with amenities near by that would further reduce our carbon footprint...

keep in mind that is just ONE example....I can think about a dozen - would it cause pain to the existing way of life?? yep for some, for sure - cities would have to adapt, some would likely not survive but we need to do it.

at this rate, I expect the worth and I am happy I am not going to live children behind.

You're probably right, but like I said, I avoid saying "too late" because that makes people just throw their hands in the air and give up. We absolutely still need to do everything we can, and now. At this point it's about mitigating climate change, not stopping it.

 

[ChasingCoral]

You're probably right, but like I said, I avoid saying "too late" because that makes people just throw their hands in the air and give up. We absolutely still need to do everything we can, and now. At this point it's about mitigating climate change, not stopping it.

Agreed. It's like the saying about planting a tree. The best time to plant a tree was 10 years ago. The second best time is today. Late is better than never.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I love it. I have two EV‘s now and will take delivery of my lightning on Monday. I will have to get more into the fine print but I do wonder what they’re going to do about people who actually need big vehicles for towing etc. We have a diesel for trailering horses, as of right now there isn’t an electric vehicle capable of doing that.

I haven't seen the actual rule but the best detail I've see is in this Washington Post article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2022/08/24/california-climate-cars/

It only applies to cars, vans, SUVs, and light trucks:
"The proposed regulation would set strict deadlines for meeting that goal, forcing automakers to step up production of cleaner vehicles considerably, starting in 2026. The requirements would only speed forward from there, until only zero-emission passenger cars, pickup trucks and SUVs as well as a limited number of plug-in hybrids are allowed to be sold in the state by 2035."

"Liane Randolph, chair of the Air Resources Board, trumpeted the proposal for delivering “a more than 50 percent reduction in pollution from cars and light trucks by 2040” and moving the state closer to a future where there are no vehicle emissions at all."

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_truck
Federal regulations define a light-duty truck to be any motor vehicle having a gross vehicle weight rating (curb weight plus payload) of no more than 8,500 pounds (3,860 kg) which is “(1) Designed primarily for purposes of transportation of property or is a derivation of such a vehicle, or (2) Designed primarily for transportation of persons and has a capacity of more than 12 persons, or (3) Available with special features enabling off-street or off-highway operation and use.”[1] Light trucks includes vans, pickups, and sport utility vehicles.[2]

The EPA and state regulators have always regulated cars and light trucks separately from heavy trucks.

 

[CDT]

Will this lead to more people buying 2500s and 250s? I see plenty of people driving them where I live who don’t need them now. I’d hate to see this lead to more people buying those or even 3500s. I’ve seen a lot of new Dualies in town lately.

 

[FM_Jack]

Will this lead to more people buying 2500s and 250s? I see plenty of people driving them where I live who don’t need them now. I’d hate to see this lead to more people buying those or even 3500s. I’ve seen a lot of new Dualies in town lately.

Yea, I can't say I paid that much attention to Light vs Heavy but I definitely notice now that I see an equal amount of 150s vs 250/350s (for example) running around.

 

[corradoborg]

Will this lead to more people buying 2500s and 250s? I see plenty of people driving them where I live who don’t need them now. I’d hate to see this lead to more people buying those or even 3500s. I’ve seen a lot of new Dualies in town lately.

Possibly. Every law has unforeseen complications and people who try to circumvent the law with technicalities. I feel sorry for people who see this as a challenge and respond by buying a vehicle they don't need that is even more expensive to purchase and operate, difficult to find parking for, and just plain impractical for most motorists. But that's their prerogative, I guess.

It won't happen on a large enough scale to outweigh the good this legislation does, though.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Will this lead to more people buying 2500s and 250s? I see plenty of people driving them where I live who don’t need them now. I’d hate to see this lead to more people buying those or even 3500s. I’ve seen a lot of new Dualies in town lately.

Depends on the price of gas/diesel as well as the potential electrification of super duty trucks..

 

[CDT]

Possibly. Every law has unforeseen complications and people who try to circumvent the law with technicalities. I feel sorry for people who see this as a challenge and respond by buying a vehicle they don't need that is even more expensive to purchase and operate, difficult to find parking for, and just plain impractical for most motorists. But that's their prerogative, I guess.

It won't happen on a large enough scale to outweigh the good this legislation does, though.

I have no idea why people drive F250’s etc if they don’t need them. Our crew cab long bed is not fun to drive or park.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I was with a friend today doing some work with our trucks. He had to fill up his Denali HD. The Station cut him off at $175.

 

[Quinnjim]

It seems funny that a state that HATES every real way of producing electricity thinks they can support all those electric vehicles. California is a funny place.

 

[CDT]

It seems funny that a state that HATES every real way of producing electricity thinks they can support all those electric vehicles. California is a funny place.

California just handled the largest use of power in its history, if I am not mistaken, during the current heatwave so we must be doing something right.

 

[corradoborg]

It seems funny that a state that HATES every real way of producing electricity thinks they can support all those electric vehicles. California is a funny place.

Please refrain from politically motivated comments before you make a bigger fool of yourself. I suggest nobody take the bait of this "no true Scotsman" take on electricity generation.

 

[Quinnjim]

California just handled the largest use of power in its history, if I am not mistaken, during the current heatwave so we must be doing something right.

Florida is a LOT hotter than CA and they don’t need to send out panicked texts for everyone to turn off their electric stuff…

I like electric vehicles, but the production of them is not green in the slightest. Most of these cars are powered by coal or nuclear energy in the end, and the process of getting the materials for the batteries is horrible for the environment.

I’m still in to it though.😀

 

[FM_Jack]

We need more nuclear power plants