[Busted]

Ford F150 Lighting Demand Not Slowing Down, so they say.

It may not be reflected in the numbers, but I think demand is dissipating with every truck that hits the lot.

Maybe I'm projecting my own feelings, but only so many folks are willing to pay, in my case, $92,000 (with taxes) for an F150 Lariat that I could pay $68,000 for, but with a hybrid engine.

$20k-30k buys a lot gas and oil filters, and I'm certain the designed from ground up next Gen will be better and cheaper; or when the Silverado and Ram show up, I'm thinking I'll be able to get a long range EV pickup that qualifies for the tax credit.

Then again, I haven't canceled my order.

https://fordauthority.com/2022/10/2022-ford-f-150-lighting-demand-not-slowing-down/

 

[HellBoy]

2023 prices certainly changed the ROI somewhat, but I bet the payoff (depending on how much you drive) is likely still shorter than 2y....

in my case this was a non-brainer - these are MSRP for Canada...before tax:

--> 2022 F150 XLT high + hybrid + 4x4 + co-pilot +20in = $71,235.00
--> 2022 F150 XLT Lightning + Tow tech = $71,395.00

but gas is wild...I think it's $1.85 today? so $7/Gal?....

and I fill up my Lightning @0.09c with potentially even lower rates being considered in the near future - maybe 0.03? 0.05? for overnight charging

 

[Busted]

My math, assuming 3.50/gal (currently 3.08 in Georgia, USA) and 7.5 cents/kwh, at 24 mpg for the hybrid truck F150 = Lightning saving of $10,833.33/100,000 miles...about 8 years for me, so about 14 years to make my $19,200 back.

That ignores that I can keep driving my paid off current truck and assumes I haven't spent $10,000 for a new battery in those 14 years or quit using mc that I put most of my miles on (not likely).

So...I might recoup the savings...about two years after I'm dead, proving Keynes right. 🤔

In the long run we are all dead.
John Maynard Keynes

But I haven't canceled my order yet. Love❤ vs Rationale🤔

 

[ChasingCoral]

My math, assuming 3.50/gal (currently 3.08 in Georgia, USA) and 7.5 cents/kwh, at 24 mpg for the hybrid truck F150 = Lightning saving of $10,833.33/100,000 miles...about 8 years for me, so about 14 years to make my $19,200 back.

That ignores that I can keep driving my paid off current truck and assumes I haven't spent $10,000 for a new battery in those 14 years or quit using mc that I put most of my miles on (not likely).

So...I might recoup the savings...about two years after I'm dead, proving Keynes right. 🤔

In the long run we are all dead.
John Maynard Keynes

But I haven't canceled my order yet. Love❤ vs Rationale🤔

You're forgetting the major reduction in maintenance costs.

 

[Busted]

You're forgetting the major reduction in maintenance costs.

Don't think I did. How much do you think you'll save each 100,000 miles?

To quote myself, "assumes I haven't spent $10,000 for a new battery"

I realize no scheduled maintenance is a great convenience, but that's relatively cheap. 200,000 miles = 40 oil changes x 19.99 = $600 (Service Street 5 packs since 2007). Add $140 for spark plugs and it is still less than the installation of the Charger and that cord we now have to buy for $500.

So let's go to real cost. My major costs for my 2001 F150 over 200,000 miles have been a radiator problem (the Lightning has a radiator to cool the battery), a problem with a similar wish-bone suspension as the Lightning, brakes, ac compressor, and coils - all less than $3,000.

Other than the coils, the I think the EV has similar components.

My motorcycle has had about $3500 of maintenance in 130,000 miles.

So 340,000 miles on two vehicles, my maintenance is less than one battery. Even including shared parts.

Do you really think your battery will still be good in 10 or 20 years or 340,000 miles? The warranty doesn't.

And all those same shared parts are now infallible?

At best, it's going to wash.

There is reason both the ICE and the EV come with a 100,000 mile drive train/battery warranty. It's only one system on the truck, and the ICE drive train is pretty damn reliable.* Everything else has similar if not the same components.

*unless you have pre-2006 Silverado or a pre-2016 Jeep, in which case schedule it's repair at 120,000 miles, but still only $1200.

But I haven't canceled my order yet.

The heart wants what the heart wants, and mine wants a nuclear power truck! (Here in Ga we have that kind of electricity.)

 

[02Reaper]

Ford F150 Lighting Demand Not Slowing Down, so they say.

It may not be reflected in the numbers, but I think demand is dissipating with every truck that hits the lot.

Maybe I'm projecting my own feelings, but only so many folks are willing to pay, in my case, $92,000 (with taxes) for an F150 Lariat that I could pay $68,000 for, but with a hybrid engine.

$20k-30k buys a lot gas and oil filters, and I'm certain the designed from ground up next Gen will be better and cheaper; or when the Silverado and Ram show up, I'm thinking I'll be able to get a long range EV pickup that qualifies for the tax credit.

Then again, I haven't canceled my order.

https://fordauthority.com/2022/10/2022-ford-f-150-lighting-demand-not-slowing-down/

Nothing is going to be cheaper moving forward. If anything, prices will rise on gas/electric vehicles. Also don't count on the next generation lightning being all that much better. Look at what's out there now (truck wise) that is built solely on an electric platform and you can see that its not all that much better.

 

[Justjoe]

Typical state of affairs in our world today. You think something therefore it is fact: 'It may not be reflected in the numbers, but I think demand is dissipating with every truck that hits the lot." You blast out to the world about what you think, no empirical supporting data, and tomorrow a million people will quote you as if it is a fact. Years ago we used to talk about what we liked instead of what we hated. My mom used to scold me as a kid, "If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all!" Read your thread entries. Nothing but hate towards electric vehicles. So, don't buy one and find a different forum to spew your unwanted opinions.

 

[Busted]

You blast out to the world about what you think, no empirical supporting data, and tomorrow a million people will quote you as if it is a fact. Years ago we used to talk about what we liked instead of what we hated. My mom used to scold me as a kid, "If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all!" Read your thread entries. Nothing but hate towards electric vehicles. So, don't buy one and find a different forum to spew your unwanted opinions.

Wow. Really? A little hyperbolic and mean. Someone didn't listen to their mama.

I even added a ❤ to show my love for the truck, but am struggling empirically.

If you have any reasons why my thoughts are wrong, I'm all ears because I really want this truck, can afford this truck, but am struggling with $92,200 for a work truck.

Years ago, we weren't so sensitive as to be triggered by a difference of opinion.

You really think I'll reach millions? You can find empirical data on that by looking at the posts #s.

But here's some more evidence, though admittedly not exactly empirical. Just last month, you could not find a Lightning for <$90,000, and most $100k+. Notice how many say "reduced."

https://www.cars.com/shopping/ford-f_150_lightning-2022/

You can already reserve a Silverado with a dealer promising to sell it for 10% under MSRP.

As I said, while the empirical data says to wait, my ❤ is in love.

Sorry I spewed such aggression on this forum, and blasted my obviously flawed reasoning, as your fact filled empirical response proved.

 

[Art p]

The thing that made me pull the trigger on the Lightening was the value of my 5 year old 2018 F150. I ended up selling it for about 90% of what I paid for it before used car prices started to plummet. Sort of made it a no-brainer for me with $4-$5 per gallon gas with us for the foreseeable future absent a big recession.

 

[R.I.P.]

Nothing is going to be cheaper moving forward. If anything, prices will rise on gas/electric vehicles. Also don't count on the next generation lightning being all that much better. Look at what's out there now (truck wise) that is built solely on an electric platform and you can see that its not all that much better.

Some, like me would disagree with that statement.

• 400 mile range
• 350kw charging
• heat pump
• 5'11" bed (can actually get a mattress in the topper)

Some of the specs that that at least for my purposes make huge differences. Cheaper? Of course not, but major spec wins. I have zero doubt that Ford's next offering will target to meet/beat these specs.

In the meantime, my F150 Lighting is a placeholder for my 2024 Sierra Denali EV. The truck wars are far from over, which is a good thing. The customer wins when the OEMs try to one-up each other.

 

[02Reaper]

Some, like me would disagree with that statement.

• 400 mile range
• 350kw charging
• heat pump
• 5'11" bed (can actually get a mattress in the topper)

Some of the specs that that at least for my purposes make huge differences. Cheaper? Of course not, but major spec wins. I have zero doubt that Ford's next offering will target to meet/beat these specs.

In the meantime, my F150 Lighting is a placeholder for my 2024 Sierra Denali EV. The truck wars are far from over, which is a good thing. The customer wins when the OEMs try to one-up each other.

We will have to wait and see, but with all of these better specs, expect a much healthier price tag.

 

[Simsonic]

"200,000 miles = 40 oil changes x 19.99 = $600 (Service Street 5 packs since 2007). Add $140 for spark plugs and it is still less than the installation of the Charger and that cord we now have to buy for $500."

Holy cow! $600 in maintenance for 200,000 miles!

I've had multiple vehicles go 200,000 miles and come no where near this low cost of maintenance. Do you do all the work yourself and do your vehicles never have other issues?

 

[02Reaper]

"200,000 miles = 40 oil changes x 19.99 = $600 (Service Street 5 packs since 2007). Add $140 for spark plugs and it is still less than the installation of the Charger and that cord we now have to buy for $500."

Holy cow! $600 in maintenance for 200,000 miles!

I've had multiple vehicles go 200,000 miles and come no where near this low cost of maintenance. Do you do all the work yourself and do your vehicles never have other issues?

I don't know where 19.99 for a oil change comes from, but you cant even buy the stuff that cheap for a modern vehicle. The cheapest oil alone for my wifes Camry cost more than that.

 

[greatbreweh]

and I fill up my Lightning @0.09c with potentially even lower rates being considered in the near future - maybe 0.03? 0.05? for overnight charging

I think I just felt the big fella move?

 

[greatbreweh]

"200,000 miles = 40 oil changes x 19.99 = $600 (Service Street 5 packs since 2007). Add $140 for spark plugs and it is still less than the installation of the Charger and that cord we now have to buy for $500."

Holy cow! $600 in maintenance for 200,000 miles!

I've had multiple vehicles go 200,000 miles and come no where near this low cost of maintenance. Do you do all the work yourself and do your vehicles never have other issues?

$160 an oil change for Ford quick lube

 

[ChrisC]

I don't know where 19.99 for a oil change comes from, but you cant even buy the stuff that cheap for a modern vehicle. The cheapest oil alone for my wifes Camry cost more than that.

IKR? I never got out of the dealer oil change/21 point check for less than $150. Even if I went to a not stealership like American Honda dealers definitely are, Jiffy Lube was close to $100. I have a 2014 Ford Focus Electric and I do not miss going to the gas station or getting oil changes. I charge with the solar on my house so the car has been the most affordable car that I have ever owned and can't wait for the Lightning!

 

[Busted]

I don't know where 19.99 for a oil change comes from, but you cant even buy the stuff that cheap for a modern vehicle. The cheapest oil alone for my wifes Camry cost more than that.

Yep. Synthetic oil and dealers can be pricey. A local chain has been selling five non-synthetic oil changes with tire rotation (Woo Yoo) for $99 since 2007, until last year. Definitely cheaper than doing it yourself, as long you always so no to the upsells.

@Simsonic All the "empirical data" Joe wants with any opinion did make my rant a little long. Sorry.

Somewhere in there was $7500 in repairs in the combined 340,000 of my 21 year-old F150 and 12 year-old motorcycle.

But, the Lightning has similar parts (AC, front suspension, radiator - lightning has one to cool the batteries, etc), so I we can't really say the EV is repair free. I'd expect similar issues for all but the coils I had to replace.

 

[Busted]

In the meantime, my F150 Lighting is a placeholder for my 2024 Sierra Denali EV. The truck wars are far from over, which is a good thing. The customer wins when the OEMs try to one-up each other.

100%. And my point when I started this post.

Used car prices were, and still are nuts, so good for those who got there EV early and could trade in!

I reserved the Cybertruck, a Lightning, and two Chevy Sierras (lesson learned from the Cyber Truck and F150) about the time reservations opened. The F150 was the one that showed up first, so it got ordered.

One day it will be delivered, but honestly, I am hoping I'll get to order the Sierra before my F150 arrives so I can compare real numbers, and decide which is a better value for me.

Last year I was hoping to be able to sell two or three of my orders to finance the next one. Oh well. But thanks to Ga Power, I will eventually be able to say I have a nuclear powered truck!

 

[buccaneer]

I get such different numbers with my use, there is a massively wide spectrum of vehicles and their owners' use cases. Pardon the Canadian units and currency, will resolve at the end.

My daily driver is a 2014 Silverado 1500 crew LT, 85% of driving is work related (small construction business). Mix of driving in small city and rural surrounds, hauling materials but rarely trailering.
Annual km driven: 24,000 (15,000 miles)
Lifetime fuel economy: 15 L/100 km
Annual fuel use 3600 L
Annual fuel cost (@$2.00/L) $7200
Oil changes/filters/maintenance $500
Annual petro costs $7700

2023 Lightning XLT SR $79,000
2023 EcoBoost XLT supercab $64,000
premium for Lightning $15,000
annual power consumption (@ 30 kWh/100 km) 7200 kWh
annual power cost (@$0.10/kWh) $720
estimated DC fast charger costs (~3000 km out of town driving) $200
annual energy cost for Lightning $920

Annual running cost savings: CAD $6780 / USD $5085
Paydown of purchase premium: 2.2 years

Typically I keep a vehicle 10-15 years, first as my own wheels, then it moves into the business fleet. Buy new truck, sell oldest truck, rinse and repeat. They have over 300,000 km (200,000 miles) by the time they're sold.
Lightning savings - 10 years ownership: $52,884, 187 tons GHG
Lightning savings - 15 years ownership: $86,784, 281 tons GHG

The lifetime ownership savings assume gas and power both stay at today's prices. Where I live, hydroelectricity is provided by a public utility, the city in my case. All power pricing is governed by a utilities commission in each province. Clear justification has to be provided and verified before the commissions grant price increases. The petro producers have spent the past half century demonstrating their version of price control and justification.

I threw in the GHG emissions saved for those who are interested/concerned, but really the dollar savings for use cases similar to mine are too attractive to ignore. Most tradespeople like myself can charge at home or at the shop each night via a simple, cheap NEMA 14-50 plug, and would rarely get near the 370 km range of the SR pack in a work day. Countless thousands of pickups being used by skilled trades that will want EV trucks because of those substantial savings. Demand will really kick once the first couple of years' worth of Lightnings are out there working and guys get to see them, drive them, and ask questions about them.

 

[greatbreweh]

that's a lot of thinking, I did it for obvious fuel savings for my driving requirements which is a lot more than average. , second whether you believe in global warming or not (i don't care to debate) I "thunk it" was good for the environment period, I could afford the truck and the money was not a deciding factor for me. To each his own!